United States in general had a win-win situation in Georgia. If Russia took no action, or anything short of intervening in force in South Ossetia, the republican party was going to take credit for putting Saakashvili in power, promoting democracy that was fighting to for its right to exist, and so on and so forth. In case of Georgia losing the war, Republicans still benefit, because in the 1980’s Reagan, who was a Republican, kept the Soviets at bay, called it an “Empire of Evil”, and took credit for toppling the Soviet government and defeating the Soviet Union. Isn’t that just great, seeing as how Obama threatens to shake the Republicans up and bring about a lot of changes, against which all of G.O.P. is fighting so hard? Obamacan only do one thing in this situation, and that is to side with McCain’s reaction to the war in Georgia. Republicans are scared of Obama, and they know that the American people do not really care about Georgia or the South Ossetians. So at the expense of thousands of dead, and hundreds of thousands left without homes, the G.O.P. decided to better their falling chances of winning the elections.
It is understandable why the Republican party simply “has to” win these elections. Their businesses in the Middle East and all of the time and money invested in planning an attack on oil rich Iran would be wasted, for Obama is looking to openly talk with Tehran, and actually make progress towards stabilizing the U.S. relations with unfriendly countries in the region.
Oil, Once Again
Anyone that knows anything about economics, if a war is erupted ina region, usually prices of goods increase. The goods coming from Middle East are *drum roll* OIL. Ever since the wars in the Middle East started, price of oil has steadily increased and those that trade the commodity – all politicians invest their money – have made good buck on the situation. Even better, politicians are on the “inside”, meaning, they know preemptively, what the official Washington will do, thus knowing, not speculating, on whether prices of commodities increase or drop.
In addition, the BP oil pipeline runs around Russia, through Georgia. If the constant supply of oil through the region is threatened, prices will increase, as speculators in the market will anticipate a drop in the supply. The price of oil in the recent months has been steadily fluttering around $120-$130/barrel. If the prices has more or less been constant, then no one makes money. A decrease or increase is needed for those that have a lot invested in the commodity.
Putting the Two Together
George W. Bush and many other politicians are reaping the fruits (cash) of the recent events in in Georgia. Bush is a lame duck and now he is using all the power and information he has to make a buck. You can’t blame him, his approval ratings are down, his party has virtually turned on him, so now he is trying to get as much benefit from this as he can retire and live in peace.
The GOP, knowing that their credibility has been damaged is trying to use their Cold War reputation to keep its representation in the White House – basically have a Republican President. To do so, it only makes sense that if democracy is threatened (anywhere in the world) by an old nemesis (Russia), then it can say, “We’ve toppled their regime before, and we’ll do it again!”. Which is exactly what is happening. Republicans do not want change, which is the platform on which Obama is running. Obama is not ignorant, he knows that this war in the Caucasus is damaging his chances of winning the Presidential race. After all, McCain is considered to have military experience, although questionable, and Obama is just young, black Senator from Illinois.
The United States has sent ships to the Black Sea to give humanitarian aid to Georgia. This missions, knowing todays politics, most likely has a darker side to it – delivery of weapons and U.S. military specialists to organize diversions and to bring weapons to whatever remains of the Georgian Army. The story is still unfolding and most likely, the details won’t be that well known. However, it is a very shady operation by the United States.
Washington seems to be trying to build a fence around Russia, getting as close to it possible, for it once again, has control of many resources, on which American businessmen a.k.a. politicians want to get their hands on. Oil and other natural resources are more and more controlled by nations and people considered by Washington as “unfriendly”, and if United States can shake the feeling of Russia’s security, then it can start dictating terms and getting Moscow to allow business to come in and take advantage of the abundance of resources.
U.S. Naval presence in the Black Sea is simply another plank in the fence. U.S. destroyers and cruisers carry up to 8 Tomahawk missiles on board, which can carry nuclear warheads. In addition, U.S. setting up missile defenses in Poland and other European countries close to Russia borders is an indication of U.S. getting ready for something major. Speculations abound, but true reasons are known only to intelligence services. It could range from invasion of Iran to U.S. bringing troops into Ukraine and Georgia, bringing U.S. and Russia closer to war than the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, which looks suspiciously familiar, but in a mirror-reflection. U.S. is bringing it’s troops and equipment ever closer to Russian borders, which should really worry the rational thinking people of even Western countries.
The Black Sea Fleet and the Black Sea Itself
The Black Sea Fleet, since the break up of the Soviet Union, has lost most of it’s strategic value. However, as evident in recent events of the South Ossetian War, Black Sea Fleet can still be of a lot of importance to Russia. the Russian Navy can play a crucial role in cooling some heads in Georgia, for the Russian fleet is no match for the few demoralized Georgian ships left in the navy. Nevertheless, it has to be taken into account, that Russian ships were face with two small Georgian ships equipped with nothing more than big caliber machine guns. So, in essence, Russian Navy has nothing to brag about. Nevertheless, Russian Black Sea Fleet is able to be of important political value to Moscow, as it can keep the U.S. ships at bay, listen to the radio frequencies and decipher U.S. codes. They are of more intelligence value than confrontational. If the United States is really delivering weapons and military advisers to Tbilisi, then it is a trump in the pocket of the Russian politicians, as they most likely will quietly hint to the U.S. that they know what Washington is up to, and are ready to release this information to the public, indicating that NATO is not there for peacekeeping purposes and is in fact violating agreements, which the West constantly accuses Russia of violating.
Map of the Black Sea
The Ships in the Black Sea
The situation in the Black Sea remains tense. The United States has sent, as a show of good will and friendship, has sent it’s naval ships to the coast of Georgia with humanitarian help: U.S. Navy destroyer USS McFaul, U.S. Coast Guard cruiser USS Dallas, and the flagship of the sixth supply fleet USS Mount Whitney. Moscow has expressed concern for this, accusing Washington of supplying weapons and other military equipment to Georgia. Other sources have also informed the media that the U.S. warships carry Tomahawk and Harpoon missiles, able to strike land and sea targets. On the other hand, some of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s ships remain near the coast of Abkhazia, protecting the withdrawal of its troops. On August 25th, Russian Flagship Moskva has left port at Sevastopol with its purpose described by Moscow officials as “testing of it’s systems and radio communications”.
Russian destroyer “Pitliviy”
Small Russian rocket cruiser “Mirage”
Russian Black Sea Fleet Flagship “Moskva”
“USS McFaul” anchored in the port of Batumi
Launch of the American Harpoon missile
Launch of a Tomahawk missile
Flagship of the 6th Supply Fleet “USS Mount Whitney”
Russian President Medvedev announced on August 26th, 2008 that Russia has recognized Abkhazian and South Ossetian independence and will start setting up diplomatic relations with the two nations. The West, almost immediately, reacted with anger and frustration. Russia is “out of control”. Washington has lost the diplomatic leverage over Moscow. The Kremlin now has the means by which to enforce its interests and it has made clear that it’s interests and decisions will not only be defended diplomatically, but also with the use of force. What has to follow now, in order for South Ossetia and Abkhazia not to end up like Taiwan, is international recognition of the two nations. If Russia can persuade E.U. of necessity of the step towards independanceofthe Caucasian republics, then U.S. will be left with no choice. It is a matter of Moscow having something to offer to the E.U., because Washington will not budge on the issue, and E.U. is dependent on Russian gas and oil, which may be used by Kremlin as leverage. First step has been taken – Moscow recognized the independance of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the people of the two republics are celebrating, and Russia has promised to provide help to Tskhnivali and Sukhumi whenever trouble should arise. Now, it’s up to the Moscow’s diplomats to work the situation in their favor.
NATO’s Drive East – Ukraine
U.S., 4 Turkish, Polish, and Spanish ships have been seen in the Black Sea. The Russian Flagship “Moskva” has already left port of Sevastopol with an “undeclared” purpose, which troubles the West. Ukraine has been trying to show NATO that they have power over Russia. This was exemplified in Kiev’s attempts to tighten their hold on the Black Sea Fleet with illegitimate orders for the Fleet to notify the Ukrainian authorities of any ship movements 72 hours, follow by an approval from Kiev, which may or may not happen. This was disregarded and Russia sailors know not to answer to any orders from Ukrainian officials. As it turns out, Ukraine does not have a firm hold on the Russian Naval Forces in the Black Sea. In addition to U.S. seeing this as evidence of Ukraine not being strong enough against Russia. Ukrainian people are more pro-E.U. than pro-U.S., which basically means that if the Ukrainian people do not see the partnership with U.S. as a way to get into E.U., they will not back their government’s decisions.
NATO’s Drive East – Poland
Poland has finally allowed the United States to put their missile defenses in Poland. It is simply ridiculous of the United States to state that their missiles defenses are aimed at Iran. They are closer to Russia than anything else troubling the West, and Iran has no reason to fire missiles at Europe. Polish people are scared, especially after Russia declaring that their missiles (some nuclear) are aimed at military bases in Poland. The Polish people have no one else to blame but their leader – Leh Kachinski, for endangering his own people. Poland has no business regarding Georgia, Ukraine, or Russian politics aside from those that concern trading relations between the two. Poland has developed magnificently in the recent decade, aside it’s eastern neighbor, and should not engage in outside politics of the Big Game, for it does not have leverage power, or much voice on global international issues.
Rest of NATO
British Foreign Minister Miliband decided to put together an anti-Russian coalition, being quoted as calling to the international community to “put together as wide a coalition to stop Russian aggression against Georgia.” (http://lenta.ru/news/2008/08/26/miliband/ Anatol Lieven of the British newspaper the Times quoted Lord Salisbury:
Lord Salisbury, Foreign Secretary and Prime Minister in the days of the British Empire, dispensed immense global power; but that did not mean that he liked playing about with that power.
Faced with proposals for British policy that he understood to be deeply damaging to the interests of other great powers, Salisbury would look his colleagues in the eye and ask simply: “Are you really prepared to fight? If not, do not embark on this policy.”
The full article that Lieven wrote, criticizes Miliband’s words and actions. He points out that the West’s threats towards Russia – not being able to join the WTO, canceling the membership of G8 – are empty and meaningless. Russian economy has performed well even without the WTO so far, and really has not many reasons left for joining this organization. The G8 is a meaningless organization without India and China, so Russia really could care less whether it is considered part of G8 or not. Miliband seems to be trying to get himself in the picture, and put himself up there with the politicians that made a difference in history. This is not the way to do this today. Diplomacy and rationale are key to making history today.
The Conclusion
Russia has declared South Ossetia and Abkhaziaindependent. The two Republics are celebrating. This may be a short-lived celebrations as the rest of the world is yet to recognize the two new additions to the world community. It seems like it may be a long process. U.S. and the rest of the west are trying to threaten Russia with different things that they assume are hurtful. In the short-run, they may make Russia stumble, especially economically, but the guys sitting in Kremlin has all the things planned out. It seems like they have a way out of every situation that the West puts them in. It seems that they have anticipated every possible action and have already planned every “just-in-case” scenario. Now, Western threats to Russia sounds more like frustrated gasps, such as those that one makes when he gets punched in the solar plexus.
The Islamic nations in the Middle East have all been carefully watching the war in Georgia. Russia in the 1990’s Russia was ready to sacrifice friends and national interests to gain “good relationships” with the West. By using military force to enforce it’s decisions regarding South Ossetia, Russia has shown the world that now it is to be dealt with when it comes to its national interests and friends.
President of Syria Bashar Asad recently visited Moscow on a two day visit to discuss possible strategic and economic relationships. “It is not a secret, that back in the day industries and defense systems were set up with Soviet help [in Syria]“, said Vladimir Isaev at the Institute of Eastern Studies. Most Syrians know Russian and use outdated Soviet equipment for their defense and industrial purposes. Russia will jump on the offer to produce new equipment for new power stations in Syria, along with setting up trade channels of military equipment. The Syrian Army is equipped with old Russian weapons and weapons systems, which are outdated by today’s standards. Russian military industry is already trying to set up a deal to sell anti-tank complexes to Damascus. “Unites States are dealing weapons to anyone they want, so why can’t we sell weapons to those, with whom we have been friends with for a long time?”, asks Isaev. Russia has a lot of business opportunity in Middle East, and particularly in Syria, as the whole country is screaming to be reequipped and modified. It is a whole new market for Russian industries.
New Naval Base
The most important part of the Syrian President’s visit to Russia is his offer to allow the Russian navy to set up a base in Tartus. He even offered to allow Russia to set up Iskander missiles to defend the naval base. This is a much better alternative to the Black Sea Fleet, because it allows access into the Mediterranean Sea. For the Black Sea Fleet to exit the Black Sea, it needs to sail through Turkey’s territory, so access out of the Black Sea is dependent on Turkey’s mood towards Russia and the nature of the Black Sea’s reasons for leaving the Black Sea. Although Turkey has supported Russia in it’s war with Georgia, it is trying to enter the E.U., which may turn Turkish loyalties away from Russia. Syria, however, has been antagonized by the West and after seeing Russia step up their game in South Ossetia is evermore willing to become a strategic partner. Israel has criticized Russian-Syrian partnership, however, now that it is proven that Israel helped build up Georgian military (nearly $300 million in military equipment has been sold to Georgia by Tel-Aviv) it is evident why they would not want Russia to help Syria.
Ukraine has not allowed Russia to utilize it’s missile defense systems, and has not allowed the Russian Navy set up those of their own. Ukraine has also been trying to get the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, and bring in American Naval ships into the Black Sea. Ukrainian President, Yuschenko, has tried to use South Ossetian War as an excuse to get the Russian Navy out of Crimea and out of Ukraine for good. However, Russia Navy does not answer to the President of Ukraine, and all of his orders for the Russian Black Sea Fleet to leave are illegitimate, as all branches of the Russian Defense Ministry answer solely to the President of the Russian Federation. The Black Sea Fleet is a thorn in Yuschenko’s side because to be part of NATO, they cannot have Russian bases on their territory. Europe is reluctant to accept Ukraine into its Union because of the same reason. In case of a military dispute, Russia will have their ships in the Black Sea ready to bombard targets in Europe. Right now, however, if Syria’s offer is valid and will be accepted, Russia will be willing to give up their port in Sevastopol and will more than gladly jump on the Syrian offer.
The Conclusion
Russia defending it’s interests and it keeping its promises in South Ossetia has shown the world that it is back in the game is to be dealt with. Now, any anti-west nation (all Islamic nations and most of South America) will be having talks with Moscow to become strategic partners. Venezuela and Cuba have already expressed interest in Russian partnership. Although partners for a while, friendship hasn’t gone as far as military bases and large business partnerships. The war in South Ossetia is changing the relationships in the world. Now, the division between the East and West will become more evident.
Russian Black Sea Fleet's Flagman Cruiser "Moskva"
CNN is a trusted news source in the Western world. It made a name for itself, and it’s editors know this. Eduard Kakoiti, while visiting a hospital near Tskhinvali, saw a CNN journalist, who was with the Georgian Army at the time of attack. He was quoted by RBC to say that the journalist told him, that he was told there will be a form of “blitzkrieg”. That the Georgian Army will sweep into South Ossetia and will topple the South Ossetian government. Well, this did not happen, and the journalist, remaining unnamed, was actually wounded and taken to a hospital in South Ossetia. Kokoiti also was quoted, as saying that when the journalist goes back to the U.S., he should tell the truth about the conflict. Needless to say, the journalist will most likely never release his encounter with the South Ossetian leader to the Western public, and CNN will most likely do everything it can, so the story does not leak out.
CNN also is accused of using the wrong footage to cover the events in Georgia. In a nutshell, CNN is accused of using videos of Tskhinvali, to demonstrate destruction of Gori. Not only is this copyright infringement (the videos shot by Russian camera men belong to them, if privately shot, or to the TV company, for whom the journalist works), but this is disinformation of the masses. It is the biggest crime that is imaginable. If the U.S. does not have the decency to calm down Saakashvili and tell him not to bomb civilian population, at least make sure the mass media presents true facts. Here, are two videos. The first video was shot by the man that speaks in the second video. The first video shows Tshkinvali, capital of South Ossetia. Second video is in English and requires no translation.
Fox News Controversy
Fox News Studio B’s anchor Shepard Smith has shamelessly been rude on live TV to survivors from South Ossetia – 12 year old Amanda Kakoeva (an american-ossetian living in the U.S.) and her aunt Laura Tadeeva-Koreviski. An interview was set up to give live accounts of what happened in South Ossetia. Obviously, FOX did not get the storyline they needed, instead, they got two survivors blaming Saakashvili. Both were visiting their relatives in South Ossetia when the Georgian Army attacked. Smith continuously interrupt the guest speakers in places where they talk about Georgian President’s Saakashvili Army bombing civilians and committing war crimes. Towards the end of the video, Laura is interrupted by Shepard Smith abruptly to go to commercial. Both were quoted later as saying they were really pressured into not saying what they had to say, but seeing this was live television, they took the opportunity to do so. See for yourselves:
The Conclusion
Saakashvili went out of line during his military operations. Now, the West is faced with “inconvenient truth”. Those in power will do their best, to turn the mass media away from the reality of the conflict. As was mentioned before on this blog, Russia has won on the battlefield, but the media war is being lost. Not completely, but it is slowly slipping out of their control. It is vital, to analyze the tiniest details, when looking at politics, for the real reasons are never evident to the naked eye.
The United States has been accusing Russia of fueling a new Cold War and wanting to set up a new “Iron Curtain”. It is, however, the United States that is setting up a new type of a “curtain”. Let’s call it the “blinds”. It is a good analogy, for whenever Washington does not want to their citizens to know something, they simply close them, and open them whenever it is safe for them to receive harmless information from their Eastern counter parts. The Iron Curtain during the Soviet Era was basically the border between the West and the East. Politicians today are children of the Cold War. No matter what happens in the political arena, Western political leaders will still see Moscow as a threat to the “free world” and Russians as drunk, bear-wrestling people with think accents. U.S.S.R. had satellite nations, which were basically a buffer zone in case of an attack from the West. Today, that buffer zone has been eliminated, and Washington could not be happier. American troops can actually be on the border of Russia in broad daylight. the Baltic States, Ukraine, Georgia, are all lead by former or current American citizens. There are hundreds of “political” and Pentagon-employed advisors in those countries “helping” make decisions. United States accusing Russia of making a new Iron Curtain is absurd, due to the fact that the United States has been slowly creeping up to Russian borders. The “blinds” are set between Russia and the United States, running through the borders of the Baltic States, Ukraine, and Georgia.
The E.U.
The European Union is a great idea, and has worked out well so far, for the most part. The Europeans have been doing nothing but mediating talks and conflicts, and most countries of the E.U. have avoided getting involved in conflicts in the Middle East and other places around the globe. The E.U. will always side with Washington, for Europe has never liked that Russia has so much control over the resource market. The only way to keep the “Russian Bear” at bay, is to have a big power have some leverage. That big power with leverage is the United States. E.U.’s has and oil, at least most it, comes from Russia. Europeans don’t have many resources left on their land, so they really depend on the eastern neighbor. Their politics are purely business. Although its citizens make fun of Americans and their politics, E.U. and U.S. need each other. E.U. needs the United States for pressure on Russia, and United States needs E.U. to have the power that it has. If E.U. become indifferent to U.S. politics and decides to be nutural, U.S. will stop being a big power. Nevertheless, the commercial markets and interdependency on financial and capital exchange will keep the two sides of the Atlantic bound for a long time.
Modern Political Drive
Today politicians are driven not by ideologies (Communism vs. Democracy during the Cold War), but by money. So, today’s political world should be analyzed just like a business is, but on a much bigger scale. Biggest of them all, actually. Almost every leader of any country makes decisions based on his potential financial gains, and utilizes tax payers’ money to do his dirty work. In essence using someone else’s funds to pay for business intelligence and research. President George W. Bush has stake in United Defense, Carlyle Group, and numerous other industries that relate directly to his administration’s agenda and goals. Vladimir Putin, just like most of Russian politicians have stake in Gazprom, Rosneft, and other companies that are ultimately in charge of natural resources. So, no matter what these or any other leaders say about “noble” motives for the actions (i.e. territorial integrity, anti-ethnic genocide, human rights, bringing down dictatorships, etc.), the underlying motives are always business. And if any good for the people is actually achieved, it is simply something done along the way to the ultimate goal of personal financial gain. Ideologies no matter govern political decisions. It is business, and just as was mentioned previously in this blog, resources are the sole reason for any major armed conflict. Morris 108 laid out the last major armed conflict motive very well,
“The BP run BTC pipeline is the only valuable item in Georgia, the only thing to fight over, and just 2 weeks ago, the promise of it being filled with Kazakh oil disappeared. And it disappeared into Russia’s hands. Within a week the pipeline was blown up, and the Georgian offensive started.” Full Article Here
Another example is Sudan. United States politicians, to keep citizens of the U.S. happy, have been criticizing the events in Darfur. However, no direct action has been taken. None of the world really has, and that is because Sudan doesn’t have enough resources in it’s land to have interest of big businesses. Today, ethics have nothing to do with big political decisions of any player of the Big Game.
China and the Rest of Asia
China has been knocking on Siberia’s door for decades. Starting with earliest provocations along Amur and Ussuri rivers, biggest of them all being on Damanskiy Island in 1969 with tens of Russian border troops killed in open armed conflict and hundreds of Chinese soldiers killed (thanks to introduction of the new “Grad” system, which was also used by Georgians in the South Ossetian War). China, although has a lot of sparsely settled land the West, has most of the populations living along the Pacific Coast, because a lot of its resources and jobs are in major cities, all of which are along the Eastern Coast. Once again, resources come into play. China, today, imports a lot of resources. It’s exports are slowing down (read China Today’s trade section, and you will notice this trend as well). It’s population is growing. Russia is the target of the People’s Republic because of the abundance of resources. The abundance of living space, resources, and business opportunity drives the Chinese to keep disputing over Russian territories and they actually send people into Russia to live, to drive out the Russian population, so some time in the future, they will have no problem having population support of historically Russian regions wanting to join PRC (smart, you have to admit).
The rest of Asia is simply living in their own world. They have enough problems of their own, and their leaders have no problem being corrupt and making cash. If anything, leaders of most Asian countries don’t want to be involved in the politics on the world scale, for it will bring too much attention to their corrupt governments.
The Conclusion
Smartest political players have already transitions into the 21st century mentality, that business runs everything. Expect events to heat up from here on in. The South Ossetia War in Georgia has started a new crack between the East and the West. Sides are going to be chosen, and the alliances made within the next few years will remain such for decades on. A new Cold War, more ferocious and dangerous has begun. This one, however, is not of ideologies between the West and the East, it is a war of business interests between resource rich, and resource needy.
The cartoon images have shown Russia as an angry bear, stretching out a claw to maul Georgia. Russia is certainly angry, and, like a beast provoked, has bared its teeth. But it is the wrong stereotype. What the world has seen last week is a brilliant and brutal display of Russia’s national game, chess. And Moscow has just declared checkmate.
Chess is a slow game. One has to be ready to ignore provocations, lose a few pawns and turn the hubris of others into their own entrapment. For years there has been rising resentment within Russia. Some of this is inevitable: the loss of empire, a burning sense of grievance and the fear that in the 1990s, amid domestic chaos and economic collapse, Russia’s views no longer mattered.
A generalised resentment, similar to the sour undercurrents of Weimar Germany, began to focus on specific issues: the nonchalance of the Clinton Administration about Russian sensitivities, especially over the Balkans and in opening Nato’s door to former Warsaw Pact members; the neo-conservative agenda of the early Bush years that saw no role for Russia in its global agenda; and Washington’s ingratitude after 9/11 for vital Kremlin support over terrorism, Afghanistan and intelligence on extremism.
More infuriating was Western encouragement of “freedom” in the former Soviet satellite states that gave carte blanche to forces long hostile to Russia. In the Baltic states, Soviet occupation could be portrayed as worse than the Nazis. EU commissioners from new member states could target Russian policies. Populists in Eastern Europe could ride to power on anti-Russian rhetoric emboldened by Western applause for their fluency in English.
Nowhere was such taunting more wounding than in Ukraine and Georgia, two countries long part of the Russian Empire, whose history, religion and culture were so intertwined with Russia’s. Moscow tried, disastrously, to check Western, and particularly American, influence in Ukraine. The clumsy meddling led to the Orange Revolution.
Georgia was a different matter. Relations were always mercurial, but Eduard Shevardnadze, the wily former Soviet Foreign Minister, knew how to keep atavistic animosities in check. Not so his brash successor, Mikheil Saakashvili. From then on, hubris was Tbilisi’s undoing.
It was not simply the dismissive rhetoric, the open door to US advisers or the economic illiteracy in forgetting dependence on Russian energy and remittance from across the border; it was the determined attempt to make Georgia a US regional ally and outpost of US influence.
Big powers do not like other big powers poaching. This may not be moral or fair but it is reality, and one that underpins the Security Council veto. The Monroe Doctrine – “hands off the Americas” – has been policy in Washington for 200 years. The US is ready to risk war to keep out not only other powers but hostile ideologies – in Cuba and Nicaragua.
Vladimir Putin lost several pawns on the chessboard – Kosovo, Iraq, Nato membership for the Baltic states, US renunciation of the ABM treaty, US missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic. But he waited.
The trap was set in Georgia. When President Saakashvili blundered into South Ossetia, sending in an army to shell, kill and maim on a vicious scale (against US advice and his promised word), Russia was waiting.
It was not only Mr Saakashvili who thought that he had the distraction of the Olympics to cover him; the Kremlin also knew that Mr Bush was watching basketball, and, in the longer term, that the US army was fully engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan. From the day that the Russian tank brigade raced through the tunnel into South Ossetia, Russia has not made one wrong move. Mr Bush’s remarks yesterday notwithstanding, In five days it turned an overreaching blunder by a Western-backed opponent into a devastating exposure of Western impotence, dithering and double standards on respecting national sovereignty (viz Iraq).
The attack was short, sharp and deadly – enough to send the Georgians fleeing in humiliating panic, their rout captured by global television. The destruction was enough to hurt, but not so much that the world would be roused in fury. The timing of the ceasefire was precise: just hours before President Sarkozy could voice Western anger. Moscow made clear that it retained the initiative. And despite sporadic breaches – on both sides – Russia has blunted Georgian charges that this is a war of annihilation.
Moscow can also counter Georgian PR, the last weapon left to Tbilisi. Human rights? Look at what Georgia has done in South Ossetia (and also in Abkhazia). National sovereignty? Look at the detachment of Kosovo from Serbia. False pretexts? Look at Ronald Reagan’s invasion of Grenada to “rescue” US medical students. Western outrage? Look at the confused cacophony.
There are lessons everywhere. To the former Soviet republics – remember your geography. To Nato – do you still want to incorporate Caucasian vendettas into your alliance? To Tbilisi – do you want to keep a President who brought this on you? To Washington – does Russia’s voice still count for nothing? Like it or not, it counts for a lot.
Tskhinvali is destroyed. Infrastructure is crippled. Thousands of people are refugees. The status of the breakaway republic is unknown. For a very odd reason, Western politicians are deciding for the Ossetians, whether they have the right to be independent or not. Well, once a precedent is set in politics, there is no turning back. That precedent was Kosovo and no Western leader has the right to tell the South Ossetians that they are to remain as part of Georgia. There is no way that the population of the Republic of South Ossetia is willingly going to be governed by a political leader that was willing to kill off the population as much as he could to make a point to the West. Saakashvili’s massive bombardments of civilian targets are proof enough that he doesn’t care about the people. His disregard for the destruction in the region is direct evidence for him not caring about the loss of capital, which could be used by Georgia in case of a victory. So in the end, South Ossetians will never willingly remain as part of Georgia’s territory. The loss of life, destruction, and ruthless motives are too much for them to forgive.
Abkhazia
Abkhazia took advantage of the military operations in South Ossetia to take a stance themselves. They remained within their disputed territories and kept losses to a minimum (in whole thanks to Georiga’s Army being focused on South Ossetia). Their disputed territory was the Kodori Gorge. Only two days after Abkhaz soldiers began military operations against Georgia, the Abkhaz flag was flown over the disputed territory (with direct help from the Russian Air Force). Just like South Ossetia, Abkhazia will take advantage of this opportunity to push towards its independence from Georgia.
**It is important to understand that Ossetians, Abkhazians, and Georgians are completely different people and nationalities. Although peaceful towards each other, they all like their autonomy and want to govern themselves.
Georgia
The future of Georgia’s political arena, and Georgia’s territorial integrity is under a big question mark. Georgia is exiting the Union of Independent Nations, which consists of all former Soviet states, although they are not gaining anything from doing so. The Georgian population, according to numerous reports from www.utro.ru, www.lenta.ru, www.kommersant.com, and other mass media web sites, are turning hostile towards Saakashvili and his government. According to an article in www.utro.ru, nearly everyone, and especially those that have lost someone in this, war are cursing Saakashvili and his government. People are crying and saying that they never wanted a war with Russia. That the two nations are neighbors and should not shoot at each other SOURCE. It is important to understand the civilian population of Georgia is disgruntled, demoralized, and in mourning. Georgia, as a nation, will most likely remove Saakashvili from the government. The population has no more faith him, and many journalists working the area are noticing the Georgians’ want for someone who has a head on their shoulders.
Ukraine
If the Black Sea Fleet is involved, Ukraine and U.S. will do everything in their power to get it out of Sevastopol ahead of the scheduled removal of the fleet in 2017. Ukraine has been giving Georgia weapons and military equipment for years. Ukraine and the Baltic states have almost completely re- equipped their armies with U.S. weapons. The old weapons were given as "gifts" to Georgia. In the end, Georgia became the most militarized and best equipped country of all the former Soviet Republics. After the military operations have ceased in the region, Ukraine has also decided to exit the Union of Independent Nations. So in short, Ukraine is being a thorn in Russia’s side because it saw an opportunity to make its stance known. They counted on Georgia in being successful in getting Russia on its knees. However, that did not happen, and now the Ukrainian government is trying to frantically get something out of this mess, so far unsuccessful. Yuschenkowants the Black Sea Fleet out, and to become part of NATO. With U.S. giving no military aid and doing nothing but diplomatic measures against Russia, Ukraine is debating whether it wants to be part of the northern alliance or not.
Russian soldiers near the town of Gori
Russia
Russia has made clear to the world that it is back in the game. It is able to defend its borders and its interests both diplomatically and militarily. It showed the Western leaders that it ahs learned from conflicts in Chechnya in how to deal with military operations regarding the civilian population (in Chechnya the civilian population was turned against them, and so as to not make the same mistake again, actions were planned carefully this time). The war in South Ossetia has made clear where the East and West sphere’s of influence are. Moscow has all of its actions justified and well calculated. Now, since the military actions have ceased, Russian diplomats will be tested. Nevertheless, Russian position is firm and well supported.
The Russian 58-th Army is making sure that the Georgian Army is disarmed and is taking all of Georgian military equipment with them, so Georgia will not be able to pick up arms again in the near future. The town of Gori, where most of the Georgian Army was stationed, has been demelitarized by the Russian Army. Control of the Gori region is being slowly transfered to the Georgian authorities. The whole purpose of Russian military being present in Georgia is disarmament of the Geogrian Army in the region.
The United States
If this conflict was not in U.S. interest, it would simply not happen. This war had two outcomes, either Russia shows that it has a say in the world politics again and it back up from its knees, or U.S. becomes dominating force in the region, with the ability to dictate to Russia its rules. The outcomes that we witnessed was that Russia is back in the game, and strong. With all the moves calculated ahead of time and with precision, Russian politicians showed Washington that Moscow will not tolerate anyone dictating their rules to them. U.S. goals are still not reached. To achieve dominance in the Caucasus region, it needed Georgia to do some more damage to Russia’s credibility. Ukraine does not have command of the Black Sea Fleet and it is powerless to do much about it, due to agreements signed in the 1990’s. Washington lost most of what it gambled with during the South Ossetian conflict.
The Conclusion
The overall conclusion to all of this is not final, however, many things have already been decided. Russia is back on its feet. It’s presence and weight was felt during the South Ossetian War. Kremlin did not have one miscalculated step. It was prepared for this conflict, because the arms of the FSB, just like the CIA, stretch far and the intelligence side of the conflict most likely knew everything ahead of time. Georgia is a crippled ally in the Caucasus. A "special project", according to Sergei Lavrov- Russian Foreign Minister. The project failed, and at the cost of thousands of lives and ruined nations. It will take years to rebuild infrastructure, military bases, and homes. People, however, will never look at the West the same way again.
War correspondent Arkadiy Babchenko began reporting from the first hours of the beginning of the military operations. From Vladikavkaz he went to South Dzhava, then to Tshkinvali. As a war correspondent, he took part in storming the Georgian village of Zimo Nikozi, then followed soldiers of the “Vostok” battalion to Gori. These are his pictures from the war.
Zari Road
Russian Troops
Knocked out Georgian tank in Tskhinvali
A Destoryed Building in Tskhinvali
Another destoryed Georgian tank in Tskhinvali
A building in Tskhinvali after Georgian bombardment
A column with Russian soldiers in South Ossetia
Soldiers of the Chechen battalion Vostok
Russian troops
Russian Artillery poistions at an undisclosed location in South Ossetia
South Ossetian soldier
“Vostok” soldiers after storming Zemo Nikozi
A U.S. AT-4 grenade launcher abandonded by retreating Georgian army
Captured Georgian soldiers. Many Georgian mobilized reserves took off uniforms, dressed as civilians, and tried to pass Russian check points.
“Vostok” soldiers
Destroyed Georgian truck
A destroyed Georgian military column
Storm of Zemo Nikozi
The depots found in Gori had a lot of american equipment, such as this truck (U.S.);
Road to Tshinvali
Burning houses in a Georgian village of Zemo Nikozi
Russia’s victory in the battle with Georgia has agitated western media, giving a solid ground for speculations about the increasing power of Moscow and about the progress in Russia’s relations with the West. According to Britain’s The Times, the world witnessed a brilliant and tough chess game past week, where Moscow checkmated. Having sacrificed Kosovo, Iraq, NATO membership for Baltic states and deployment of the U.S. missile defense site in the Czech Republic and Poland, Putin arranged a trap in Georgia. Moscow has made no wrong moves since the column of its tanks and armored vehicles entered the Roki Tunnel.
All hawkish statements of U.S. President George Bush notwithstanding, the rude error of Georgia manifested the double-standard policy of the West in respect of the sovereignty of certain states.
According to The Financial Times, Russia made clear it would do anything in the defended state despite the ceasefire deal for South Ossetia. The agreement that both parties inked Tuesday could be interpreted differently, and Georgia, with its smashed army, has no pressurizing levers except the worldwide diplomatic support.
It is obvious where this informational war is going. Russia lost the informational battle during the campaign in Georgia. However, the informational balance seems to be shifting towards Kremlin. It is not that they are spinning the facts, they have the right facts on hand, they just need to prove to the world that they were right. Not to say that this is all clean politics, Russia just set everything up from the start, to have all the facts be in their favor, so they would not need to put any spin on information that they provide to the world. From previous conflicts, Russia has learned, that if something is not calculated well, it won’t matter how good your Foreign Minister is, or how much diplomatic support you have, it boils down to whose side the facts are on. Ethnic cleansing, mass bombardments, and use of force in the first place, are all synonymous with Georgia’s actions in the war, not with Russia. So even though Saakashvili spent his every waking moment speaking to the media, Russia planned things carefully. Notice how calm Lavrov is, he knows that the battle of Western hearts and minds would’ve never been won while the campaign was on the move. Nevertheless, now is the time that Russian Foreign Ministry will present hard facts and raw material to justify their actions and show the world that Russia is a world power to be dealt with. That it won’t stand on its knees and bow down to the will of Western leaders.
Ukraine and the Black Sea Fleet
Ukrainian President Yuschenko in the past few days signed more orders regarding the Black Sea Fleet than he has in the past year, probably. One of the saying that the Black Sea Fleet has to warn the Ukrainian government of it movements out of port not less than 72 hours in advance, another requiring the Russian Fleet to fly Ukrainian colors and flag on its masts, and a row of other ridiculous orders. Anatoliy Nagovitsin, a Russian high ranking officer in Moscow said, “We have only one chief of armed forces – and that is the President of the Russian Federation – of the Black Sea Fleet, and requests and orders from the outside are not legitimate” SOURCE.
It is ridiculous to listen to Yuschenko, as he basically says that the Black Sea Fleet is “allowed” to use Ukraine’s territorial waters and the port in Crimea as long as it is for show. Russia needs its fleet in the Black Sea and the navy played a vital role in the war in Georgia. Russian ships are there to do their duties to Russia, not to Ukraine. However, if Ukraine is threatened, Russian Navy will not stand by as their neighbor gets attacked. Yuschenko also said that Russian Navy’s actions in the war with Georgia could mean terrorist attacks against it while harbored in Ukraine, which will mean loss of Ukrainian life (I apologize for using personal opinion here, but Ukraine and Georgia are tight allies, and I highly doubt that Saakashvili will have spec ops operations conducted on Ukrainian territory). Yuschenko is trying to show the West that he has some power over Russia and that he is ready to join NATO. Although he himself is contemplating entering the Northern Alliance, because they may just stand by as their ally gets put in its place by Russians.
Georgian Borders
Neither Abkhazia nor South Ossetia will remain as part of Georgia. After what the Georgians have done to them, there is no going back. Sergei Lavrov, in an interview to Echo Moskvi, a Russian news radio station, said that “you can forget about Georgian territorial integrity”. Georgia will not be able to keep control of a people that do not want to be part of it for one, and against whom they committed such atrocities. According to Lavrov, giving their territories back to Georgia would be like a slap in the face to the South Ossetian and Abkhz people. that would mean that they fought and died for nothing more than another stand off. “It is impossible to imagine that Georgian peace keepers will be able to do anything in South Ossetia, and that not Russia’s position, that’s an objective fact” added Lavrov.
No matter what Unites States will say, not matter what resolution will be in place in the end, one things is definite. Russia will not allow South Ossetia or Abkhazia to be integrated back into Georgia. Only the autonomous republics’ independence will put in place a firm agreement between Russia and the West. Otherwise is will be a fragile, shaky peace, that may erupt into an even bigger conflict than what has happened.
The Conclusion
Washington’s double standards right now will bite them back, and bite back hard. All of U.S. allies are watching Washington’s reactions to this conflict in awe, as now they are sure whether the U.S. will come to their aid in case of need. NATO is losing its reliability, it seems, with regard to the smaller nations involved.
Ukraine is trying to put its few words into the conflict and is trying to get Russia angered over the Black Sea Fleet. However, never forget about the FSB, for one. The Russian agents are informing Kremlin of every move in Kiev. If anything starts brewing, Moscow will not stand by, it will make it’s point clear and intentions known. The Ukrainian government will have to deal with its citizens begging them not to go to war with the Russians, because they know what a real war is – Ukraine will never forget World War 2 and the Germans.
Georgia’s borders are no longer what they are. Although officially Georgia’s borders are the same as they were a month ago, expect to see South Ossetia and Abkhazia have their independence recognized sometime in the near future. There is no other option. The people of these two republics will never want to live under the rule of a regime that they curse and despise.
closerview
