closerviewWinners and Losers in the Georgia-Russia Conflict
Posted by closerview on August 13, 2008
Russian military has full control of the war in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgian mobilized reserves are running away in numbers, as stated by journalists at www.Utro.ru working in the area of the conflict. A military observer, analyzing the town of Gori, where the 4th battalion of the Georgian army has been stationed, said that the4th battalion does not exist anymore. All over the ground there are uniforms, regalia, jeeps and trucks, along with heavy artillery and tanks are abandoned. The citizens of the town fled, fearing the the South Ossetian militia and the Russian army will start killing them, because of what the Georgians did in Tskhinvali. The Georgian President Saakashvili is trying to play it as Russians are on the move to oust him from power by force, take Tbilisi, and take over Georgia.
This is true, for the Russian armored column, which was said to be moving towards Tbilisi, has turned away back to the bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Georgian President, in frustration, is trying to accuse the Russian side continuous bombing and military operations. Nevertheless, no military operations are being carried out. Georgian civilians have been constantly quoted by the media to say that they don’t want this fighting. They don’t want their children dying for Saakashvili, as he does not present a rallying figure to them. They are aware, despite the Russian media blockade in Georgia, that Russia does not want to take over Georgia and to forcefully make it part of the Russian Federation. In short, the battle has been won by the Russian military. Now it is a question of keeping peace.
Russian soldiers on an APC passing a knocked out Georgian Tank
The Information Battlefield
This is the 21st century. Battles are not won solely on the battlefields anymore. Battles are fought in the press as well. This is where the Russians are taking a beating. The Georgian government, the U.S. government, and everyone else knows about the ignorance of the majority of the U.S. population. This may be blunt, but true. It has been easy for the Georgians to win the support of the American people. All that was needed was for CNN to run a short clip of Russian tanks crossing the Ossetian border, saying that the Russians have “invaded” Georgia. What can be more simple? Think back to when the campaign was started. The western media did not run anything on the Georgian MLRS “Grad” launching massive barrages of high-explosive shells on Tskhinvali. Why? Well, it’s not that important apparently, that close to 1500 civilians have been killed and a city leveled within the first 24 hours. It is more important to portray the Big Russian Bear as the bad guy marching into a small “democratic” (it’s hilarious to call it that, really) Georgia. The Georgian President Saakashvili has been coming out with new statements every hour or so of his waking time. If interesting at all, notice that his statement contradict themselves. It is safe to assume that he has no idea how to get himself out of this mess. He is comparable to a conrnered beast, which in the acts of trying to saveor hist last moments using anything at his disposal to save his skin. Saakashvili has been chracterizied as a paranoic, and has been prescribed a lot of medication, such as Prozac, to keep his head straight (If interested, bisit Russian news sites, if you can read Russian). Nevertheless, the Western media won the informational battle. They showed a few dead Georgian civilians (notice how they keep showing same pictures over and over of the same people) and the big bad Russian armored columns. It is only natural for people in the West to subconsciously to put the two together and think that a huge force is moving on peaceful Georgia, forgeting that Georgia started the mess. All in all, Russia needs to step up their game in the Media. However, with a few allies left in the West, it is nearly impossible.
The Big Question: What’s in it for the U.S.?
It is really asstounding, to how ruthless politics can be. At the cost of an allied country, Washington in the end has benefitted most from this mess. Only thing left to do is stand by in awe and disgust. The NATO naval forces have amassed their ships in the Persian Gulf. Biggest naval build up in the region since the beginning of the war in Iraq. No one has noticed the build up of force in the region because the world’s attention is directed towards Georgia and the Olympics. Washington, knowing that the Olympics are not enough to keep the media occupied, had planned an escalation of the conflict in Georgia on the day of Olympics. The plan is fool proof. The media is stretched, and the world wants to know what is going on in Georgia and the Olympics, so the reporters cannot cover the build up in the Persian Gulf. Also, the forces in Kuwait are on full alert. The only times when forces are on full alert is when a big military operation is about to take place. Most likely it will be in Iraq.
The Conclusion
In the end, the battlefields in Georgia are controlled by the Russian 58-th Army. The Western leaders have already confirmed this. The media war will keep going for an undetermined amount of time. However, the battle may be lost, but the overall victory over the opinion of the masses in the West is still up for grabs. The true winner so far is the U.S. They have used this, if not planned this, to their advantage in the Persian Gulf regardeing Iran. Keep reading the news for updates. If the Western Media comes across facts of ethnic cleansing and Gerogian atrocities in the region, the Western leaders may have to turn their back and gamble away their Georgian ally.
!!Finally!!
As this analysis is being finsihed. I just came across a very interesting article by the British newspaper “The Guardian”. As I mentionaned in my previous post, the Russian will wait for things to settle and finally release the “hungry” Western journalists to look at the destruction of Tskhinvali http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/13/georgia.russia3
I highly suggest for everyone to read this, as this is the first article by the Western media to bring first hand accounts of the South Ossetian side of the war.
Georgia, russia,U.S,S,Southern Ossetia,ossetia,winners,losers,media,global | Faithless Elector said
[...] just finished reading an interesting article which seeks to make a point of identifying winners and losers in the recent political foul-play [...]
thooghun said
This is my answer to your interesting article which I’ve posted on my website.
I’ve just finished reading an interesting article (link to you) which seeks to make a point of identifying winners and losers in the recent political foul-play that is the Georgian crisis. I particularly liked the idea that a war is no longer won on the battlefield (was it ever?) and that the strength of the western media has had an overbearing impact on the way the conflict is portrayed.
But I disagree with the “winner” being the U.S. Russia are, in my eyes, the clear winners (again there are no winners, but you know what I mean). Russia was able to openly invade a U.S ally, in eastern Europe. Without reactions harsher than half-baked threats and rhetoric. They achieved what they set out to do, they oiled a decaying and rusty military ensemble, and finally, limited the amount of negative feedback in the media by abiding to a cease-fire (on the surface — at least) and showing the world they are no longer the Soviet Union. Quelling fears of another Cold-War crisis. It’s easy to forgive an invasion when you are relieved that the waters seem to be calmer than they could have been.
Russia also managed to show that it is a superpower, that is listens to the world community but will act unilaterally (much like the U.S). It also showed that it can and will intervene. A stark warning for both European and American interests in the area.
At the end of the day Georgia was just a pretext. The military “victory” is meaningless. As sad as the loss of life and destruction is, it is merely a smoke-screen for the reshuffling of queens on a chess-board, with the variation yet to be played out.