Progress Being Made in Georgia – Avoiding a New Cold War

The recent events of the past month in Georgia become more complex everyday. This is especially due to information finally being unearthed.

Israel

Israel has banned all businessmen related its military industry to travel to the Caucasus region. Russia is known to protect its interests no matter what. So if Israel kept on dealing arms to Georgia, Russia in turn would start supplying Middle Eastern nations hostile to Tel-Aviv with modern weapons. To avoid risking this, Israel has decided to virtually halt its role as a Georgian ally and to avoid getting involved in the whole situation around Tbilisi.  Iran being a closer Russian ally, Israel does not want to give Russia reason to deal modern weapons to Tehran.

Georgia

Saakashvili may resign his Presidency sometime before, or in the beginning of, this upcoming winter. The question of Saakashvili’s resignation has been discussed actively in Washington by the Georgian opposition. According to Alexander Chachia, leader of the opposition movement “Samegrelo”, M. Saakashvili “will be made an offer he cannot refuse.” He also added that the U.S. has been looking into the question of having Saakashvili resign in September, but it would mean admitting their own “human resource” mistake. Saakashvili’s predecessor is presumed to be his fellow of the “Rose revolution” Nino Burdzhanadze, who is an ex-speaker of the Georgian parliament and currently is part of the opposition. She has already visited Washington. Nonetheless, experts say that this change will not bring about much change into the relationship between Moscow and Tbilisi. “Moscow will have to speak with the masters, not the servants,” says Alexander Skakov, and expert at the Russian Institute of Strategic Research. He states that Tbilisi’s foreign policy will still be coming from Washington.

American media is now becoming split in condemning and supporting Georgia. Most of the critics of Saakashvili in the West say that his actions went against Western interests and were completely orchestrated by Saakashvili.

The way the situation is unfolding right now is exactly as I said on my very first post on August 8th, as Georgian artillery pounded Tskhinval:

United States will do one of the following: remove Saakashvili from power or wait for the conflict to end and then congratulate the victor. Saakashvili seems to think that he has brought Georgia to the global level, but no one really cares. It is as simple as that. Access to the Black Sea and a base near the Caucasus Mountains is not reason enough for the U.S. to go to war with another power. Full Article Here

U.S. Policy in the Caucasus

Russian officials have stated that by sending back Georgian military personnel from Iraq to Tbilisi on August 8th, 2008, Washington has provided military support to Tbilisi in its fight in South Ossetia. Colonel-General A. Nagovitsin, head of the military operations in South Ossetia stated that, “[Georgian] political and military officials have lost control of the situation [during the conflict], and Mikheil Saakashvili has gone as far as asking Americans to provide him with a plane in case he had to leave.” He added that the panic in the country was so great that when 50 Georgian tanks were retreating from Tkhinvali, they were mistaken by the media and the government for Russian tanks, which in turn made the West think that Russians were pushing through Georgia.

Again, as was stated in the first article at CloserView:

That in mind, why has the U.S. not stepped in to help Georgia? Simple – Saakashvili did not talk it over with the U.S. He is now officially making decisions for himself, and this is not a decision that Washington truly supports. They HAVE to condemn Russia’s actions because Russia and U.S. have never sided on the same side of any major issue.

The Conclusion

Russia knows that it lost the informational war. Now it was what it is best at – cornering its opponents into admitting their mistakes. It will throw all its resources not into playing the informational war, for it cannot be won. Is has already won it’s battle with Israel sending modern weapons and modifying Georgia equipment. Czech Republic has already indirectly admitted to U.S. missile-defenses and radars being directed against Russia.

Now, Moscow wants Poland to admit it’s decision for letting the U.S. set its missile defenses on its territory wrong.

Most important battle that the Kremlin is fighting right now is getting Washington to stop backing Saakashvili and becoming an alternative to the U.S. as an ally for countries. Medvedev has openly stated that Kremlin’s policy is getting the world to stop being a one-sided game in Washington. Implying that it will do its best to defend its interests and interests of others even if they go against U.S. foreign policy interests.

Avoiding a new cold War means Washington and Russian politicians to set things straight around Georgia and to have everyone do their own things. When everyone starts getting involved in one conflict, two sides emerge and start clashing heads. If the battle remains only between Washington and Moscow, and the rest of the world stays out of it, a new Cold War will be avoided.

Important Video of U.S. Lawmakers During the Hearing on War in Georgia

U.S Congressmen HAVE to support Georgia, for U.S. holds responsibility for Saakashvili and his administration. This video was sent to me by a reader. It shows direct speeches of Ron Paul, Dana Rohrbacher, and (!!!) Hillary Clinton.  No commentary is needed further. The evidence is there.

American Intelligence Confirms That Russia Is Right

RBC, a trusted and well known news source in Russia and especially in the European business world has just released a story that is titled, “American Intelligence Confirms That Russia Is Right” relating to the war South Ossetia. Here’s the link to the permanent site of the story on RBC. If anyone reading this questions my translation, feel free to pop this into a translator, or find a person who reads Russian. I guarantee direct translation.

American Intelligence Confirms That Russia Is Right

American intelligence confirmed that Russia’s actions were correct during the Georgia-South Ossetia conflict. According to their data, recent military actions in South Ossetia were begun by Georgia, which is why Russia’s position is correct.  Dana Rohrbacher (R – California) stated this on Tuesday’s hearing in Congress.

“All intelligence sources with whom I’ve talk – and I have talked to many during the summer [congressional] recess – confirm, that all recent military actions in Georgia and its separatist provinces were started by Georgia,” stressed Dana Rohrbacher, according to TV channel “Vesti-24″.

According to his words, “Georgia, not Russians, broke the ceasefire, and no talks about provocations and other things can change this fact.”

D. Rohrbacher said that all attempts to put all of the blame for the military actions on South Ossetia are a “fig-leaf”**. “Russians are right, we are not. Georgians started it, Russians finished it,” said the politician.

**A fig-leaf is the little leaf that covers the private parts of statues. This is a direct Russian translation and a “fig” here is not the fruit, but rather meant to express that it does not serve a lot of purpose, as the statue is naked already.

The Conclusion

This will NEVER be aired or written anywhere in America. A thorough Google, Yahoo!, etc search will not find anything even mentioning this in English language. Rohrbacher’s statements undermine the whole political stance of the West in the conflict. Even though American intelligence is the source of all of this, the politicians who have a lot at stake here will do all they can to make sure this does not get out into the Western newspapers and tabloids soon, if at all. U.S. will completely lose face if a story even slightly mentioning this is published anywhere in Europe, even more so if it is published in the States.

Ukraine and Georgia – When the Body Doesn’t Listen to the Head

The leaders in Ukraine and Georgia – Yuschenko and Saakashvili respectively – seem to be losing hold of their governments and their public support is falling each day. News are coming out quite frequently hinting at tensions between the Presidents of the two countries and their governments. Oppositions are using this chance to bring forth their ideas and show what they have to offer their countrymen.

Ukraine

Newspapers from Russia and Ukraine are reporting that Yuschenko and the Rada (Verhovnaya Rada is Kiev’s Upper House) are more tense than ever. The Ukrainian parliamentariansare introducing a new bill that calls for renaming the Ukrainian Internal Forces to the National Ukrainian Guard. In essence, this gives the control of the military to the Rada, and takes it away from Yuschenko. Nikolai Dzhiga, a Ukrainian parliamentarian, pointed out that in this way, Yuschenko will not be able to use the military to pursue his political goals.

In 2007, during the Ukrainian political crisis, Yuschenko tried to issue an order for the military to step in when the special police units loyal to the head of the Ministry of Interior took control of the building of the Secretary of State’s building. No one followed the order as they did not agree with it and Ukrainian parliamentarians shot down the order, deeming it unconstitutional.

This shows, that Yuschenko is the only one who is backing his political goals. Ukraine is virtually split, the East and the South regions supporting Russia and pro-Russian parties, while the West and the North are supporting the complete opposites. It is important to note that one that thing that everyone in Ukraine has in common, is lack of support for Yuschenko.

Events around Yuliya Timoshenko, a leader of an opossition party to Yuschenko, has been the center of media attention for the past week.She has taken a pro-Russia stance, as Yuschenkoputs it, with repsect to Georgia and Crimea. Timoshenko said that Yuschenko is only putting the Ukrainian people in danger by tensing the situation in the Black Sea and supporting Georgia, events around which have become a political turmoil. Timoshenko also said that she has noticed a “tail” behind her wherever she goes. Most likely from the Ukrainian Secret Service at the request of Yuschenko. Because of her stance on Georgia and Crimea, she has been called a traitor to Ukraine by Yuschenko, however, no one else seems to echo his thoughts on the matter.

Georgia

Opposition leaders in Georgia are calling for Saakashvili’s resignation. The opposition leader of the party called “New Right” David Gemkrelidze said that is was “irresponsible of Saakashvili to bomb Tkhinvali, it was a trap, whichw as set for Georgia, against which the U.S., Europe, and the Georgia people have warned.” He also added, that now NATO does not know within which borders to accept Georgia into it’s organization. It is true, though, South Ossetian War has truly backed up Tbilisi’s attempts to join NATO.

The leader of the opposition also stated that he will meet with other opposition leaders to work out a plan of action of how to act in situations such as the one on hand. Soon, they will release their own, independent analysis of the short war in South Ossetia and will presented to the world.

Although the opposition is condemning Saakashvili, they are not taking a pro-Russia stance. Knowing, that the Georgian citizens have only been fed Saakashvili’s take on the war and read only the stories published by state controlled media, they have to take a stance which shows them as saying that this conflict was wrong and that the territorial sovereignty of Georgia has been destroyed. Nevertheless, they are not blaming Russia for the actions and are placing all of the blame on Saakashvili.

The Conclusion

United States is losing the grip on the “friends” in Tbilisi and Kiev. The oppositions in the countries are becoming more and more popular, as the current administrations do not give the Ukrainian and Georgian people what they want, and that is security (as seen in the South Ossetian War and the tensions in Crimea), and stable economies (spending a lot on military, while not paying attention to important domestic issues). It will be interesting to see how the elections in Ukraine and Georgia will be affected by the wave of current events, what role the U.S. will play.

Financing the Georgian Army – Foreign Investment Galore

Following the annihilation of the Georgian Army during the South Ossetian War, NATO and other allies of Georgia have promised Georgia to help rebuild its full military potential. Having Western say in the Caucasus region seems to be the priority of the Western world.

Captured Georgian Military Equipment

The Russian military officials have reported that they captured around 150 military units, 65 of them are tanks. 44 tanks have been brought back to Russia, the rest were destroyed because they were either unfit for use or of old modifications. Georgian Armed Forces had 230-240 tanks in use before the conflict was started. Most of those tanks were modified by an Israeli firm Elbit Systems into T-72-SIM-1. During the fighting, the Russian troops also captured 5 anti-aircraft missile systems 9K33 “Osa”, 15 BMP-2, numerous 122-mm towed howitzers D-30, American armored personnel carriers, HUMVEE’s, and artillery systems of Czech design. According to Lieutenant-General Golovchenko of the North Caucasus Military District, one of the captured anti-aircraft systems registered 3 launches.

Military Bases in Gori, Senaki, and Poti

The West has condemned the Russian military for moving into Georgian territory, primarily into the port of Poti and towns of Senaki and Gori. the Georgian military completely abandoned their military bases in all of those cities. Saakashvili raised panic and evacuated civilians out of those areas, saying that the Russian and Ossetian forces will kill the civilians as a form of revenge for what the Georgian military has done to Tskhinval (Tskhinvali with an “i” at the end is a Georgian renamed city. After Medvedev declared the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia independent, the “i” was dropped, to return the city its rightful ancient name”).

The goal of the Russian military operation was not to destroy the Georgian economy, which was not good before the war already. The goal was to demilitarize the Georgian Army and to thwart Georgian military potential in the region. A lot of the captured military equipment the Russians took from Gori. 15 T-72-SIM-1 tanks, dozens of armored fighting vehicles, and artillery systems along with their ammo were captured. Part of the arsenal found in Gori was destroyed, part was taken to Russia. The explosions that the Saakashvili said were Russian bombings of Gori were actually Russian engineers destroying Georgian military equipment.

From the military bases in Senaki, Russian troops captured 1728 assault weapons. 764 American M4 carbines, 28 M-40 machine guns, and 754 various modifications of the AK. Western Media sources also say that Russian military has also captured 15 Georgian vessels, among them torpedo boats.

According to the representative of the Russian Peacekeeping Force in the Caucasus, there was enough high-caliber ammunition in Senaki to level all of Caucasus. On the base at Senaki, for the time of the conflict, the Georgian 2nd Infantry Brigade was stationed. Georgian forces left Senaki after the Russian Air Force carried out air strikes against the air field by the base.

Anatoliy Nagovitsin, the commanding General of the Russian Forces in the conflict said that 4000 assault weapons were captured, that’s not counting the ones destroyed and other military equipment captured. The American and Georgian governments have requested Russia to return the captured weapons. The Russian officials have said that they have no intent on returning the weapons, as they are captured during military operations.

Foreign Investment in the Georgian Military

According to the official statement presented by Lieutenant-General Golovchenko, there is written documentation captured by the Russian Forces that the tanks of the 1st Georgian Infantry Brigade (played biggest part in the storming of Tskhinval) underwent partial modifications in 2002 and complete modernizations in 2007 in Lvov and and other cities in Ukraine. Same thing with the BMP-2’s.

From official statements and reports to the U.N. from Ukraine, since 1999 Kiev has delivered 150 units of heavy tanks and equipment of Georgia. In the first report in 1999, among 11 other nations, Georgia was also listed as a buyer of a Rocket-Cruiser “Konotop” from Ukraine. Then, there was a four year gap in military eqiupment sales from Ukraine to Georgia. In 2004, Georgia received 6 self-propelled howitzers 2S3 “Akatsiya”. In 2005, after Yuschenko came to power and board of directors of UkrSpetsExport changed(responsible for Ukrainian weapons export), military equipment sales from Ukraine to Georgia increased dramatically. In 2005 alone, Georgia bought 15 T-72 MBTs, 12 BMP-2s, 10 BTR-80 APCs, 6 self-propelled howitzers 2S3s, 6 MI-24 “Hind” attack helicopters, and 2 MI-8 transport helicopters. In 2006 no sales were made from Ukraine to Georgia. However, Georgia still received 2 air-radar vehicles 36D6-M to control the air space around Tbilisi.

In 2007, Georgia Ukraine sold 74 T-72 MBTs, 6 BTS-5B heavy armored tracked towing vehicles, 2 self-propelled howitzers 2S7 “Pion”, 8 training aircraft L-39 (can be fitted to serve as regualr ground-attack planes). Ina Georgian official statement to the U.N., it says that it bought 5 units of the self-propelled howitzers 2S7 “Pion”, not 2, like Ukraine states.  Also, according to the Georgian version of the document, they also acquired one Anti-Air Mobile System “Buk” and 48 Anti-Tank Guided Missiles “Kombat”. Also in 2007 Tbilisi said that it bought assault weapons from Ukraine.

Looking at this statistic, how Georgia financed all of this. Georgian GDP for 2003 was 3.91 billion dollars. It’s external debt being 1.8 billion, or 40% of its GDP. Per capita income averages $700 per year. So how can Georgia buy these weapons? Simple – financial help from the West.

The biggest contributor to Georgia’s military build up was the United States. During the period of 2004 – 2007, Washington officially gave Tbilisi nearly $600 million dollars. In addition to this, Tbilisi made a special fund in 2004, that accepted donations to develop its national armed forces. Donations can be made in full anonymity from private and government organizations, as well as NGO’s and non-profit organization.

The German Controversy

Recently, the German news channel ARD released a statement saying that Georgian soldiers were photographed and noted as using the German G36 assault rifle. Western reporters were actually the ones that took pictures of the Georgian Special Forces holding G36 rifles, made by the German weapons company Heckler und Koch. The director of the informational bureau in Freiburg – Jurgen Gresslin – stated that he had no doubt that the rifles in the pictures were the H&K G36 with the shortened barrel for the special forces.

The German Minister of Economics denied Germany selling the weapons to the Georgians, as special documentation that is required for export is not on file and never has been filed. No permission has been given to Heckler und Koch to sell the guns to Tbilisi. Channel ARD, quoting the British Jane’s Defence Weekly, Heckler und Koch directed a request to the German government for sale of 230 G36 rifles to Georgia (200 of them shortened special forces versions, and 30 compact-assault versions). However, H&K’s request was denied. Although no permission was given, because it violates the German policy of not selling weapons to countries involved in territorial conflict, the G36 rifles appeared on the battlefield in South Ossetia. H&K could’ve as easily sold the weapons to a third country, who could in turn sell the weapons to Georgia.

Most Recent Confrontation

On the 19th of August, an incident took place that undermined Washington’s statements that it was delivering humanitarian help to the people of Georgia. In the Georgian town of Poti, Russian troops arrested 22 Georgian uniformed men. After interrogation, the men said that they were supposed to receive humanitarian help from the U.S. ships. As it turns out, their packages included assault weapons, rocket launchers, and plastic explosives. The Georgian soldiers were driving nearly brand new HUMVEE’s, whose odometer showed not even 400 miles. On the windows of the vehicles there were still stickers with “U.S. Property” printed on them. This incident sparked the Pentagon’s official request made by Brian Wittman to the Russian government to return “US property” to the rightful owners.