closerviewThe Caspian basin has long been a point of contention between Russia and other world players for many years. It is the second largest oil reserve in the world and has enough resources to fuel all parties interested for many decades, also enriching those that take part in the extraction and sale of the resources. It was called the ‘Great Game’ in the 1800s, now some call it ‘Great Game II’. The Great Game was ‘played’ between the Russian and the British empires. Now, the British are part of a larger force called NATO and all nations in the alliance share Britain’s interests.
Russia is not about to give up the fight for its area of influence. Control of the Caspian would be a tremendous blow to the EU because Russia then would be controlling nearly every possible source of energy in EU’s close proximity. Since the USSR fell apart, old rivalries resurfaced and new ones emerged in Central Asia. Many European nations would love to get a piece of the Central Asian riches and, with the region being in an unstable shape, it is much easier to accomplish than it was if the old USSR or the Russian Empire was still around.
The Nabucco Pipeline
Not too long ago, Georgia signed a deal to be a part of the Nabucco pipeline that would essentially reduce Europe’s dependency on Russia as its energy supplier. Ever since the project was decided upon in the early 1990s, it has been full of intrigue, conspiracy theories, and some experts even tried to link it to the war is South Ossetia in August of 2008. The possible issues that Russia may have with this pipeline are evident. If it is completed, Russia loses its market share of EU energy imports and loses an opportunity to expand its energy exports.
It can be hypothesized that Georgia went to war in South Ossetia in order to show the rest of the world that it has a strong military and leadership that it is able to provide security for the potential pipeline and energy routes going through it. If it were successful, the EU and the US would most definitely see Georgia as a worthy partner in Central Asia and invest heavily in the country’s economy. If Russia lost, NATO would be able to draw a line in the Caucasus region between a Russian and Western area of influence.
However, Georgia showed that it was not up to the task of providing security for potential investments in Nabucco and further energy routes feeding Europe. Russia’s campaign showed that it will not settle on such a close area of influence border and is willing to further fight for its right to oversee Central Asia. In addition, Russia is planning its own pipeline, but one which would connect the Caspian and the Black Seas. That pipeline would feed Europe as well, but now with Russia controlling the flows.
NATO Exercises
Georgia’s instability and their approach to solving territorial disputes have shown the EU that Georgia is not a good guarantor of security to a possible pipeline that would be essential to Europe’s import of energy sources. On the other hand, the EU needs a second pipeline going around Russia in order to insure themselves against possible incidents like the one that happened with Ukraine in the early months of 2009, when Russia cut off the gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine. If Georgia were able to provide the needed security on their own, they would be a perfect partner for NATO, the EU, and the US to claim more territory for their area of influence in Central Asia.
NATO’s plans to hold exercises in Georgia are a bold step towards showing Russia that Tbilisi’s will not be allowed to fall and that Georgia as a whole is NATO partner. Europe’s and US leadership, along with Western press have been very quiet about events in Tbilisi and protests against Saakashvili. In the shadow of NATO’s exercises, the West cannot show that it is unsupportive of Saakashvili, for regardless of his actions they need someone friendly to them in power in order to have a foothold in the Caspian basin.
NATO’s exercises are not supposed to show Georgia’s military abilities. Their abilities were exemplified in August of 2008 in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. However, it is to make a statement that the EU will now begin to bolster the security of Georgia and that Russia will better allow the West to build its pipeline. NATO is reluctant to let Georgia join because it would truly anger Russia and ruin any sort of cooperation that the West was planning to get from Moscow. However, these military exercises would prove to Russia that Georgia is now under NATO protectorate and a second South Ossetian/Abkhazian incident would not be allowed to happen.
Conclusion
Europe needs to diversify their energy dependence. Too much of it is on Russia, as events in January of 2009 have shown. Russia is reluctant to allow that to happen, because Europe’s energy dependence is a trump in Moscow’s hands. The Great Game II is unfolding and it is gaining momentum. Recently, Russia won Kyrgyzstan from the West in that the Manas base is no longer available to the NATO forces for military purposes. NATO needs to answer. Their answer is military exercises in Georgia. Georgia is a strategic partner to the West because it lies between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea.
If NATO is successful in making Georgia a secure state and able to stave off Russia’s aspirations at building its own pipeline, Georgia would become the jewel of Central Asia for the West. It would spell a large victory in the second Great Game and would cause Russia to step back from further aspirations in expanding its influence beyond the Caucasus. More importantly, Europe will be able to diversify energy exports. That in turn would mean weakening Russia’s political leverage.
