Washington’s Ambitions in Crimea

FULL ARTICLE AT RUSSIATODAY.COM

Crimea is the current target of Washington’s campaign in Ukraine. Overall, the United States is after lucrative business opportunities in Ukraine, aside from becoming a bigger thorn in Russia’s side. A recent announcement by the U.S. Department of State stating that U.S. may open a diplomatic post in Simferopol in Crimea is another step toward escalation of tensions between Washington and Moscow over Ukraine.
 
Washington’s goals are fairly simple – business opportunities galore coupled with putting more pressure on Russia. Most importantly, if U.S. influence in Ukraine grows, it will be able to keep Russian gas companies in check by becoming the direct negotiator representing Ukraine on the issues regarding gas. In addition, it will be able to play its role in the politics of Europe regarding gas, thus increasing pressure on Russia.

Ukraine’s president is already a Washington supporter. Yushchenko’s …FULL ARTICLE AT RUSSIATODAY.COM

Ukraine and Georgia – When the Body Doesn’t Listen to the Head

The leaders in Ukraine and Georgia – Yuschenko and Saakashvili respectively – seem to be losing hold of their governments and their public support is falling each day. News are coming out quite frequently hinting at tensions between the Presidents of the two countries and their governments. Oppositions are using this chance to bring forth their ideas and show what they have to offer their countrymen.

Ukraine

Newspapers from Russia and Ukraine are reporting that Yuschenko and the Rada (Verhovnaya Rada is Kiev’s Upper House) are more tense than ever. The Ukrainian parliamentariansare introducing a new bill that calls for renaming the Ukrainian Internal Forces to the National Ukrainian Guard. In essence, this gives the control of the military to the Rada, and takes it away from Yuschenko. Nikolai Dzhiga, a Ukrainian parliamentarian, pointed out that in this way, Yuschenko will not be able to use the military to pursue his political goals.

In 2007, during the Ukrainian political crisis, Yuschenko tried to issue an order for the military to step in when the special police units loyal to the head of the Ministry of Interior took control of the building of the Secretary of State’s building. No one followed the order as they did not agree with it and Ukrainian parliamentarians shot down the order, deeming it unconstitutional.

This shows, that Yuschenko is the only one who is backing his political goals. Ukraine is virtually split, the East and the South regions supporting Russia and pro-Russian parties, while the West and the North are supporting the complete opposites. It is important to note that one that thing that everyone in Ukraine has in common, is lack of support for Yuschenko.

Events around Yuliya Timoshenko, a leader of an opossition party to Yuschenko, has been the center of media attention for the past week.She has taken a pro-Russia stance, as Yuschenkoputs it, with repsect to Georgia and Crimea. Timoshenko said that Yuschenko is only putting the Ukrainian people in danger by tensing the situation in the Black Sea and supporting Georgia, events around which have become a political turmoil. Timoshenko also said that she has noticed a “tail” behind her wherever she goes. Most likely from the Ukrainian Secret Service at the request of Yuschenko. Because of her stance on Georgia and Crimea, she has been called a traitor to Ukraine by Yuschenko, however, no one else seems to echo his thoughts on the matter.

Georgia

Opposition leaders in Georgia are calling for Saakashvili’s resignation. The opposition leader of the party called “New Right” David Gemkrelidze said that is was “irresponsible of Saakashvili to bomb Tkhinvali, it was a trap, whichw as set for Georgia, against which the U.S., Europe, and the Georgia people have warned.” He also added, that now NATO does not know within which borders to accept Georgia into it’s organization. It is true, though, South Ossetian War has truly backed up Tbilisi’s attempts to join NATO.

The leader of the opposition also stated that he will meet with other opposition leaders to work out a plan of action of how to act in situations such as the one on hand. Soon, they will release their own, independent analysis of the short war in South Ossetia and will presented to the world.

Although the opposition is condemning Saakashvili, they are not taking a pro-Russia stance. Knowing, that the Georgian citizens have only been fed Saakashvili’s take on the war and read only the stories published by state controlled media, they have to take a stance which shows them as saying that this conflict was wrong and that the territorial sovereignty of Georgia has been destroyed. Nevertheless, they are not blaming Russia for the actions and are placing all of the blame on Saakashvili.

The Conclusion

United States is losing the grip on the “friends” in Tbilisi and Kiev. The oppositions in the countries are becoming more and more popular, as the current administrations do not give the Ukrainian and Georgian people what they want, and that is security (as seen in the South Ossetian War and the tensions in Crimea), and stable economies (spending a lot on military, while not paying attention to important domestic issues). It will be interesting to see how the elections in Ukraine and Georgia will be affected by the wave of current events, what role the U.S. will play.

Financing the Georgian Army – Foreign Investment Galore

Following the annihilation of the Georgian Army during the South Ossetian War, NATO and other allies of Georgia have promised Georgia to help rebuild its full military potential. Having Western say in the Caucasus region seems to be the priority of the Western world.

Captured Georgian Military Equipment

The Russian military officials have reported that they captured around 150 military units, 65 of them are tanks. 44 tanks have been brought back to Russia, the rest were destroyed because they were either unfit for use or of old modifications. Georgian Armed Forces had 230-240 tanks in use before the conflict was started. Most of those tanks were modified by an Israeli firm Elbit Systems into T-72-SIM-1. During the fighting, the Russian troops also captured 5 anti-aircraft missile systems 9K33 “Osa”, 15 BMP-2, numerous 122-mm towed howitzers D-30, American armored personnel carriers, HUMVEE’s, and artillery systems of Czech design. According to Lieutenant-General Golovchenko of the North Caucasus Military District, one of the captured anti-aircraft systems registered 3 launches.

Military Bases in Gori, Senaki, and Poti

The West has condemned the Russian military for moving into Georgian territory, primarily into the port of Poti and towns of Senaki and Gori. the Georgian military completely abandoned their military bases in all of those cities. Saakashvili raised panic and evacuated civilians out of those areas, saying that the Russian and Ossetian forces will kill the civilians as a form of revenge for what the Georgian military has done to Tskhinval (Tskhinvali with an “i” at the end is a Georgian renamed city. After Medvedev declared the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia independent, the “i” was dropped, to return the city its rightful ancient name”).

The goal of the Russian military operation was not to destroy the Georgian economy, which was not good before the war already. The goal was to demilitarize the Georgian Army and to thwart Georgian military potential in the region. A lot of the captured military equipment the Russians took from Gori. 15 T-72-SIM-1 tanks, dozens of armored fighting vehicles, and artillery systems along with their ammo were captured. Part of the arsenal found in Gori was destroyed, part was taken to Russia. The explosions that the Saakashvili said were Russian bombings of Gori were actually Russian engineers destroying Georgian military equipment.

From the military bases in Senaki, Russian troops captured 1728 assault weapons. 764 American M4 carbines, 28 M-40 machine guns, and 754 various modifications of the AK. Western Media sources also say that Russian military has also captured 15 Georgian vessels, among them torpedo boats.

According to the representative of the Russian Peacekeeping Force in the Caucasus, there was enough high-caliber ammunition in Senaki to level all of Caucasus. On the base at Senaki, for the time of the conflict, the Georgian 2nd Infantry Brigade was stationed. Georgian forces left Senaki after the Russian Air Force carried out air strikes against the air field by the base.

Anatoliy Nagovitsin, the commanding General of the Russian Forces in the conflict said that 4000 assault weapons were captured, that’s not counting the ones destroyed and other military equipment captured. The American and Georgian governments have requested Russia to return the captured weapons. The Russian officials have said that they have no intent on returning the weapons, as they are captured during military operations.

Foreign Investment in the Georgian Military

According to the official statement presented by Lieutenant-General Golovchenko, there is written documentation captured by the Russian Forces that the tanks of the 1st Georgian Infantry Brigade (played biggest part in the storming of Tskhinval) underwent partial modifications in 2002 and complete modernizations in 2007 in Lvov and and other cities in Ukraine. Same thing with the BMP-2’s.

From official statements and reports to the U.N. from Ukraine, since 1999 Kiev has delivered 150 units of heavy tanks and equipment of Georgia. In the first report in 1999, among 11 other nations, Georgia was also listed as a buyer of a Rocket-Cruiser “Konotop” from Ukraine. Then, there was a four year gap in military eqiupment sales from Ukraine to Georgia. In 2004, Georgia received 6 self-propelled howitzers 2S3 “Akatsiya”. In 2005, after Yuschenko came to power and board of directors of UkrSpetsExport changed(responsible for Ukrainian weapons export), military equipment sales from Ukraine to Georgia increased dramatically. In 2005 alone, Georgia bought 15 T-72 MBTs, 12 BMP-2s, 10 BTR-80 APCs, 6 self-propelled howitzers 2S3s, 6 MI-24 “Hind” attack helicopters, and 2 MI-8 transport helicopters. In 2006 no sales were made from Ukraine to Georgia. However, Georgia still received 2 air-radar vehicles 36D6-M to control the air space around Tbilisi.

In 2007, Georgia Ukraine sold 74 T-72 MBTs, 6 BTS-5B heavy armored tracked towing vehicles, 2 self-propelled howitzers 2S7 “Pion”, 8 training aircraft L-39 (can be fitted to serve as regualr ground-attack planes). Ina Georgian official statement to the U.N., it says that it bought 5 units of the self-propelled howitzers 2S7 “Pion”, not 2, like Ukraine states.  Also, according to the Georgian version of the document, they also acquired one Anti-Air Mobile System “Buk” and 48 Anti-Tank Guided Missiles “Kombat”. Also in 2007 Tbilisi said that it bought assault weapons from Ukraine.

Looking at this statistic, how Georgia financed all of this. Georgian GDP for 2003 was 3.91 billion dollars. It’s external debt being 1.8 billion, or 40% of its GDP. Per capita income averages $700 per year. So how can Georgia buy these weapons? Simple – financial help from the West.

The biggest contributor to Georgia’s military build up was the United States. During the period of 2004 – 2007, Washington officially gave Tbilisi nearly $600 million dollars. In addition to this, Tbilisi made a special fund in 2004, that accepted donations to develop its national armed forces. Donations can be made in full anonymity from private and government organizations, as well as NGO’s and non-profit organization.

The German Controversy

Recently, the German news channel ARD released a statement saying that Georgian soldiers were photographed and noted as using the German G36 assault rifle. Western reporters were actually the ones that took pictures of the Georgian Special Forces holding G36 rifles, made by the German weapons company Heckler und Koch. The director of the informational bureau in Freiburg – Jurgen Gresslin – stated that he had no doubt that the rifles in the pictures were the H&K G36 with the shortened barrel for the special forces.

The German Minister of Economics denied Germany selling the weapons to the Georgians, as special documentation that is required for export is not on file and never has been filed. No permission has been given to Heckler und Koch to sell the guns to Tbilisi. Channel ARD, quoting the British Jane’s Defence Weekly, Heckler und Koch directed a request to the German government for sale of 230 G36 rifles to Georgia (200 of them shortened special forces versions, and 30 compact-assault versions). However, H&K’s request was denied. Although no permission was given, because it violates the German policy of not selling weapons to countries involved in territorial conflict, the G36 rifles appeared on the battlefield in South Ossetia. H&K could’ve as easily sold the weapons to a third country, who could in turn sell the weapons to Georgia.

Most Recent Confrontation

On the 19th of August, an incident took place that undermined Washington’s statements that it was delivering humanitarian help to the people of Georgia. In the Georgian town of Poti, Russian troops arrested 22 Georgian uniformed men. After interrogation, the men said that they were supposed to receive humanitarian help from the U.S. ships. As it turns out, their packages included assault weapons, rocket launchers, and plastic explosives. The Georgian soldiers were driving nearly brand new HUMVEE’s, whose odometer showed not even 400 miles. On the windows of the vehicles there were still stickers with “U.S. Property” printed on them. This incident sparked the Pentagon’s official request made by Brian Wittman to the Russian government to return “US property” to the rightful owners.

Elections ‘08, Economics, and Recent Events in the Caucasus

Win-Win for the GOP

United States in general had a win-win situation in Georgia. If Russia took no action, or anything short of intervening in force in South Ossetia, the republican party was going to take credit for putting Saakashvili in power, promoting democracy that was fighting to for its right to exist, and so on and so forth. In case of Georgia losing the war, Republicans still benefit, because in the 1980’s Reagan, who was a Republican, kept the Soviets at bay, called it an “Empire of Evil”, and took credit for toppling the Soviet government and defeating the Soviet Union. Isn’t that just great, seeing as how Obama threatens to shake the Republicans up and bring about a lot of changes, against which all of G.O.P. is fighting so hard? Obamacan only do one thing in this situation, and that is to side with McCain’s reaction to the war in Georgia. Republicans are scared of Obama, and they know that the American people do not really care about Georgia or the South Ossetians. So at the expense of thousands of dead, and hundreds of thousands left without homes, the G.O.P. decided to better their falling chances of winning the elections.

It is understandable why the Republican party simply “has to” win these elections. Their businesses in the Middle East and all of the time and money invested in planning an attack on oil rich Iran would be wasted, for Obama is looking to openly talk with Tehran, and actually make progress towards stabilizing the U.S. relations with unfriendly countries in the region.

Oil, Once Again

Anyone that knows anything about economics, if a war is erupted ina  region, usually prices of goods increase. The goods coming from Middle East are *drum roll* OIL. Ever since the wars in the Middle East started, price of oil has steadily increased and those that trade the commodity – all politicians invest their money – have made good buck on the situation. Even better, politicians are on the “inside”, meaning, they know preemptively, what the official Washington will do, thus knowing, not speculating, on whether prices of commodities increase or drop.

In addition, the BP oil pipeline runs around Russia, through Georgia. If the constant supply of oil through the region is threatened, prices will increase, as speculators in the market will anticipate a drop in the supply. The price of oil in the recent months has been steadily fluttering around $120-$130/barrel. If the prices has more or less been constant, then no one makes money. A decrease or increase is needed for those that have a lot invested in the commodity.

Putting the Two Together

George W. Bush and many other politicians are reaping the fruits (cash) of the recent events in in Georgia. Bush is a lame duck and now he is using all the power and information he has to make a buck. You can’t blame him, his approval ratings are down, his party has virtually turned on him, so now he is trying to get as much benefit from this as he can retire and live in peace.

The GOP, knowing that their credibility has been damaged is trying to use their Cold War reputation to keep its representation in the White House – basically have a Republican President. To do so, it only makes sense that if democracy is threatened (anywhere in the world) by an old nemesis (Russia), then it can say, “We’ve toppled their regime before, and we’ll do it again!”. Which is exactly what is happening. Republicans do not want change, which is the platform on which Obama is running. Obama is not ignorant, he knows that this war in the Caucasus is damaging his chances of winning the Presidential race. After all, McCain is considered to have military experience, although questionable, and Obama is just young, black Senator from Illinois.

Hightened Tensions in the Black Sea

The Overall Picture

The United States has sent ships to the Black Sea to give humanitarian aid to Georgia. This missions, knowing todays politics, most likely has a darker side to it – delivery of weapons and U.S. military specialists to organize diversions and to bring weapons to whatever remains of the Georgian Army. The story is still unfolding and most likely, the details won’t be that well known. However, it is a very shady operation by the United States.

Washington seems to be trying to build a fence around Russia, getting as close to it possible, for it once again, has control of many resources, on which American businessmen a.k.a. politicians want to get their hands on. Oil and other natural resources are more and more controlled by nations and people considered by Washington as “unfriendly”, and if United States can shake the feeling of Russia’s security, then it can start dictating terms and getting Moscow to allow business to come in and take advantage of the abundance of resources.

U.S. Naval presence in the Black Sea is simply another plank in the fence. U.S. destroyers and cruisers carry up to 8 Tomahawk missiles on board, which can carry nuclear warheads. In addition, U.S. setting up missile defenses in Poland and other European countries close to Russia borders is an indication of U.S. getting ready for something major. Speculations abound, but true reasons are known only to intelligence services. It could range from invasion of Iran to U.S. bringing troops into Ukraine and Georgia, bringing U.S. and Russia closer to war than the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, which looks suspiciously familiar, but in a mirror-reflection. U.S. is bringing it’s troops and equipment ever closer to Russian borders, which should really worry the rational thinking people of even Western countries.

The Black Sea Fleet and the Black Sea Itself

The Black Sea Fleet, since the break up of the Soviet Union, has lost most of it’s strategic value. However, as evident in recent events of the South Ossetian War, Black Sea Fleet can still be of a lot of importance to Russia. the Russian Navy can play a crucial role in cooling some heads in Georgia, for the Russian fleet is no match for the few demoralized Georgian ships left in the navy. Nevertheless, it has to be taken into account, that Russian ships were face with two small Georgian ships equipped with nothing more than big caliber machine guns. So, in essence, Russian Navy has nothing to brag about. Nevertheless, Russian Black Sea Fleet is able to be of important political value to Moscow, as it can keep the U.S. ships at bay, listen to the radio frequencies and decipher U.S. codes. They are of more intelligence value than confrontational. If the United States is really delivering weapons and military advisers to Tbilisi, then it is a trump in the pocket of the Russian politicians, as they most likely will quietly hint to the U.S. that they know what Washington is up to, and are ready to release this information to the public, indicating that NATO is not there for peacekeeping purposes and is in fact violating agreements, which the West constantly accuses Russia of violating.

Map of the Black Sea

The Ships in the Black Sea

The situation in the Black Sea remains tense. The United States has sent, as a show of good will and friendship, has sent it’s naval ships to the coast of Georgia with humanitarian help: U.S. Navy destroyer USS McFaul, U.S. Coast Guard cruiser USS Dallas, and the flagship of the sixth supply fleet USS Mount Whitney. Moscow has expressed concern for this, accusing Washington of supplying weapons and other military equipment to Georgia. Other sources have also informed the media that the U.S. warships carry Tomahawk and Harpoon missiles, able to strike land and sea targets. On the other hand, some of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s ships remain near the coast of Abkhazia, protecting the withdrawal of its troops. On August 25th, Russian Flagship Moskva has left port at Sevastopol with its purpose described by Moscow officials as “testing of it’s systems and radio communications”.

Russian destroyer “Pitliviy”

Small Russian rocket cruiser “Mirage”

Russian Black Sea Fleet Flagship “Moskva”

“USS McFaul” anchored in the port of Batumi

Launch of the American Harpoon missile

Launch of a Tomahawk missile

Flagship of the 6th Supply Fleet “USS Mount Whitney”

U.S. Coast Guard’s “USS Dallas”

U.S. Navy’s destroyer USS McFaul

Independance of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and NATO’s Drive East

Independance of the Breakway Republics

Russian President Medvedev announced on August 26th, 2008 that Russia has recognized Abkhazian and South Ossetian independence and will start setting up diplomatic relations with the two nations. The West, almost immediately, reacted with anger and frustration. Russia is “out of control”. Washington has lost the diplomatic leverage over Moscow. The Kremlin now has the means by which to enforce its interests and it has made clear that it’s interests and decisions will not only be defended diplomatically, but also with the use of force. What has to follow now, in order for South Ossetia and Abkhazia not to end up like Taiwan, is international recognition of the two nations. If Russia can persuade E.U. of necessity of the step towards independanceofthe Caucasian republics, then U.S. will be left with no choice. It is a matter of Moscow having something to offer to the E.U., because Washington will not budge on the issue, and E.U. is dependent on Russian gas and oil, which may be used by Kremlin as leverage. First step has been taken – Moscow recognized the independance of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the people of the two republics are celebrating, and Russia has promised to provide help to Tskhnivali and Sukhumi whenever trouble should arise. Now, it’s up to the Moscow’s diplomats to work the situation in their favor.

NATO’s Drive East – Ukraine

U.S., 4 Turkish, Polish, and Spanish ships have been seen in the Black Sea. The Russian Flagship “Moskva” has already left port of Sevastopol with an “undeclared” purpose, which troubles the West. Ukraine has been trying to show NATO that they have power over Russia. This was exemplified in Kiev’s attempts to tighten their hold on the Black Sea Fleet with illegitimate orders for the Fleet to notify the Ukrainian authorities of any ship movements 72 hours, follow by an approval from Kiev, which may or may not happen. This was disregarded and Russia sailors know not to answer to any orders from Ukrainian officials. As it turns out, Ukraine does not have a firm hold on the Russian Naval Forces in the Black Sea. In addition to U.S. seeing this as evidence of Ukraine not being strong enough against Russia. Ukrainian people are more pro-E.U. than pro-U.S., which basically means that if the Ukrainian people do not see the partnership with U.S. as a way to get into E.U., they will not back their government’s decisions.

NATO’s Drive East – Poland

Poland has finally allowed the United States to put their missile defenses in Poland. It is simply ridiculous of the United States to state that their missiles defenses are aimed at Iran. They are closer to Russia than anything else troubling the West, and Iran has no reason to fire missiles at Europe. Polish people are scared, especially after Russia declaring that their missiles (some nuclear) are aimed at military bases in Poland. The Polish people have no one else to blame but their leader – Leh Kachinski, for endangering his own people. Poland has no business regarding Georgia, Ukraine, or Russian politics aside from those that concern trading relations between the two. Poland has developed magnificently in the recent decade, aside it’s eastern neighbor, and should not engage in outside politics of the Big Game, for it does not have leverage power, or much voice on global international issues.

Rest of NATO

British Foreign Minister Miliband decided to put together an anti-Russian coalition, being quoted as calling to the international community to “put together as wide a coalition to stop Russian aggression against Georgia.” (http://lenta.ru/news/2008/08/26/miliband/ Anatol Lieven of the British newspaper the Times quoted Lord Salisbury:

Lord Salisbury, Foreign Secretary and Prime Minister in the days of the British Empire, dispensed immense global power; but that did not mean that he liked playing about with that power.

Faced with proposals for British policy that he understood to be deeply damaging to the interests of other great powers, Salisbury would look his colleagues in the eye and ask simply: “Are you really prepared to fight? If not, do not embark on this policy.”

The full article that Lieven wrote, criticizes Miliband’s words and actions. He points out that the West’s threats towards Russia – not being able to join the WTO, canceling the membership of G8 – are empty and meaningless. Russian economy has performed well even without the WTO so far, and really has not many reasons left for joining this organization. The G8 is a meaningless organization without India and China, so Russia really could care less whether it is considered part of G8 or not. Miliband seems to be trying to get himself in the picture, and put himself up there with the politicians that made a difference in history. This is not the way to do this today. Diplomacy and rationale are key to making history today.

The Conclusion

Russia has declared South Ossetia and Abkhaziaindependent. The two Republics are celebrating. This may be a short-lived celebrations as the rest of the world is yet to recognize the two new additions to the world community. It seems like it may be a long process. U.S. and the rest of the west are trying to threaten Russia with different things that they assume are hurtful. In the short-run, they may make Russia stumble, especially economically, but the guys sitting in Kremlin has all the things planned out. It seems like they have a way out of every situation that the West puts them in. It seems that they have anticipated every possible action and have already planned every “just-in-case” scenario. Now, Western threats to Russia sounds more like frustrated gasps, such as those that one makes when he gets punched in the solar plexus.

Syria and Russia – New Naval Bases and New Markets

Middle-Eastern Promises

The Islamic nations in the Middle East have all been carefully watching the war in Georgia. Russia in the 1990’s Russia was ready to sacrifice friends and national interests to gain “good relationships” with the West. By using military force to enforce it’s decisions regarding South Ossetia, Russia has shown the world that now it is to be dealt with when it comes to its national interests and friends.

President of Syria Bashar Asad recently visited Moscow on a two day visit to discuss possible strategic and economic relationships. “It is not a secret, that back in the day industries and defense systems were set up with Soviet help [in Syria]“, said Vladimir Isaev at the Institute of Eastern Studies. Most Syrians know Russian and use outdated Soviet equipment for their defense and industrial purposes. Russia will jump on the offer to produce new equipment for new power stations in Syria, along with setting up trade channels of military equipment. The Syrian Army is equipped with old Russian weapons and weapons systems, which are outdated by today’s standards. Russian military industry is already trying to set up a deal to sell anti-tank complexes to Damascus. “Unites States are dealing weapons to anyone they want, so why can’t we sell weapons to those, with whom we have been friends with for a long time?”, asks Isaev. Russia has a lot of business opportunity in Middle East, and particularly in Syria, as the whole country is screaming to be reequipped and modified. It is a whole new market for Russian industries.

New Naval Base

The most important part of the Syrian President’s visit to Russia is his offer to allow the Russian navy to set up a base in Tartus. He even offered to allow Russia to set up Iskander missiles to defend the naval base. This is a much better alternative to the Black Sea Fleet, because it allows access into the Mediterranean Sea. For the Black Sea Fleet to exit the Black Sea, it needs to sail through Turkey’s territory, so access out of the Black Sea is dependent on Turkey’s mood towards Russia and the nature of the Black Sea’s reasons for leaving the Black Sea. Although Turkey has supported Russia in it’s war with Georgia, it is trying to enter the E.U., which may turn Turkish loyalties away from Russia. Syria, however, has been antagonized by the West and after seeing Russia step up their game in South Ossetia is evermore willing to become a strategic partner. Israel has criticized Russian-Syrian partnership, however, now that it is proven that Israel helped build up Georgian military (nearly $300 million in military equipment has been sold to Georgia by Tel-Aviv) it is evident why they would not want Russia to help Syria.

Ukraine has not allowed Russia to utilize it’s missile defense systems, and has not allowed the Russian Navy set up those of their own. Ukraine has also been trying to get the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, and bring in American Naval ships into the Black Sea. Ukrainian President, Yuschenko, has tried to use South Ossetian War as an excuse to get the Russian Navy out of Crimea and out of Ukraine for good. However, Russia Navy does not answer to the President of Ukraine, and all of his orders for the Russian Black Sea Fleet to leave are illegitimate, as all branches of the Russian Defense Ministry answer solely to the President of the Russian Federation. The Black Sea Fleet is a thorn in Yuschenko’s side because to be part of NATO, they cannot have Russian bases on their territory. Europe is reluctant to accept Ukraine into its Union because of the same reason. In case of a military dispute, Russia will have their ships in the Black Sea ready to bombard targets in Europe. Right now, however, if Syria’s offer is valid and will be accepted, Russia will be willing to give up their port in Sevastopol and will more than gladly jump on the Syrian offer.

The Conclusion

Russia defending it’s interests and it keeping its promises in South Ossetia has shown the world that it is back in the game is to be dealt with. Now, any anti-west nation (all Islamic nations and most of South America) will be having talks with Moscow to become strategic partners. Venezuela and Cuba have already expressed interest in Russian partnership. Although partners for a while, friendship hasn’t gone as far as military bases and large business partnerships. The war in South Ossetia is changing the relationships in the world. Now, the division between the East and West will become more evident.

Russian Black Sea Fleet's Flagman Cruiser "Moskva"

South Ossetia War – The Aftermath

South Ossetia

Tskhinvali is destroyed. Infrastructure is crippled. Thousands of people are refugees. The status of the breakaway republic is unknown. For a very odd reason, Western politicians are deciding for the Ossetians, whether they have the right to be independent or not. Well, once a precedent is set in politics, there is no turning back. That precedent was Kosovo and no Western leader has the right to tell the South Ossetians that they are to remain as part of Georgia. There is no way that the population of the Republic of South Ossetia is willingly going to be governed by a political leader that was willing to kill off the population as much as he could to make a point to the West. Saakashvili’s massive bombardments of civilian targets are proof enough that he doesn’t care about the people. His disregard for the destruction in the region is direct evidence for him not caring about the loss of capital, which could be used by Georgia in case of a victory. So in the end, South Ossetians will never willingly remain as part of Georgia’s territory. The loss of life, destruction, and ruthless motives are too much for them to forgive.

Abkhazia

Abkhazia took advantage of the military operations in South Ossetia to take a stance themselves. They remained within their disputed territories and kept losses to a minimum (in whole thanks to Georiga’s Army being focused on South Ossetia). Their disputed territory was the Kodori Gorge. Only two days after Abkhaz soldiers began military operations against Georgia, the Abkhaz flag was flown over the disputed territory (with direct help from the Russian Air Force). Just like South Ossetia, Abkhazia will take advantage of this opportunity to push towards its independence from Georgia.

**It is important to understand that Ossetians, Abkhazians, and Georgians are completely different people and nationalities. Although peaceful towards each other, they all like their autonomy and want to govern themselves.

Georgia

The future of Georgia’s political arena, and Georgia’s territorial integrity is under a big question mark. Georgia is exiting the Union of Independent Nations, which consists of all former Soviet states, although they are not gaining anything from doing so. The Georgian population, according to numerous reports from www.utro.ru, www.lenta.ru, www.kommersant.com, and other mass media web sites, are turning hostile towards Saakashvili and his government. According to an article in www.utro.ru, nearly everyone, and especially those that have lost someone in this, war are cursing Saakashvili and his government. People are crying and saying that they never wanted a war with Russia. That the two nations are neighbors and should not shoot at each other SOURCE. It is important to understand the civilian population of Georgia is disgruntled, demoralized, and in mourning. Georgia, as a nation, will most likely remove Saakashvili from the government. The population has no more faith him, and many journalists working the area are noticing the Georgians’ want for someone who has a head on their shoulders.

Ukraine

If the Black Sea Fleet is involved, Ukraine and U.S. will do everything in their power to get it out of Sevastopol ahead of the scheduled removal of the fleet in 2017. Ukraine has been giving Georgia weapons and military equipment for years. Ukraine and the Baltic states have almost completely re- equipped their armies with U.S. weapons. The old weapons were given as "gifts" to Georgia. In the end, Georgia became the most militarized and best equipped country of all the former Soviet Republics. After the military operations have ceased in the region, Ukraine has also decided to exit the Union of Independent Nations. So in short, Ukraine is being a thorn in Russia’s side because it saw an opportunity to make its stance known. They counted on Georgia in being successful in getting Russia on its knees. However, that did not happen, and now the Ukrainian government is trying to frantically get something out of this mess, so far unsuccessful. Yuschenkowants the Black Sea Fleet out, and to become part of NATO. With U.S. giving no military aid and doing nothing but diplomatic measures against Russia, Ukraine is debating whether it wants to be part of the northern alliance or not.

Russian soldiers near the town of Gori

Russia

Russia has made clear to the world that it is back in the game. It is able to defend its borders and its interests both diplomatically and militarily. It showed the Western leaders that it ahs learned from conflicts in Chechnya in how to deal with military operations regarding the civilian population (in Chechnya the civilian population was turned against them, and so as to not make the same mistake again, actions were planned carefully this time). The war in South Ossetia has made clear where the East and West sphere’s of influence are. Moscow has all of its actions justified and well calculated. Now, since the military actions have ceased, Russian diplomats will be tested. Nevertheless, Russian position is firm and well supported.

The Russian 58-th Army is making sure that the Georgian Army is disarmed and is taking all of Georgian military equipment with them, so Georgia will not be able to pick up arms again in the near future. The town of Gori, where most of the Georgian Army was stationed, has been demelitarized by the Russian Army. Control of the Gori region is being slowly transfered to the Georgian authorities. The whole purpose of Russian military being present in Georgia is disarmament of the Geogrian Army in the region.

The United States

If this conflict was not in U.S. interest, it would simply not happen. This war had two outcomes, either Russia shows that it has a say in the world politics again and it back up from its knees, or U.S. becomes dominating force in the region, with the ability to dictate to Russia its rules. The outcomes that we witnessed was that Russia is back in the game, and strong. With all the moves calculated ahead of time and with precision, Russian politicians showed Washington that Moscow will not tolerate anyone dictating their rules to them. U.S. goals are still not reached. To achieve dominance in the Caucasus region, it needed Georgia to do some more damage to Russia’s credibility. Ukraine does not have command of the Black Sea Fleet and it is powerless to do much about it, due to agreements signed in the 1990’s. Washington lost most of what it gambled with during the South Ossetian conflict.

The Conclusion

The overall conclusion to all of this is not final, however, many things have already been decided. Russia is back on its feet. It’s presence and weight was felt during the South Ossetian War. Kremlin did not have one miscalculated step. It was prepared for this conflict, because the arms of the FSB, just like the CIA, stretch far and the intelligence side of the conflict most likely knew everything ahead of time. Georgia is a crippled ally in the Caucasus. A "special project", according to Sergei Lavrov- Russian Foreign Minister. The project failed, and at the cost of thousands of lives and ruined nations. It will take years to rebuild infrastructure, military bases, and homes. People, however, will never look at the West the same way again.

U.S. Double Standards, Yuschenko and the Black Sea Fleet, Georgian Territorial Integrity

The Informational Battlefield (Cont’d)

www.kommersant.com

Russia Revealed Double Standards of the U.S.

Russia’s victory in the battle with Georgia has agitated western media, giving a solid ground for speculations about the increasing power of Moscow and about the progress in Russia’s relations with the West.
According to Britain’s The Times, the world witnessed a brilliant and tough chess game past week, where Moscow checkmated. Having sacrificed Kosovo, Iraq, NATO membership for Baltic states and deployment of the U.S. missile defense site in the Czech Republic and Poland, Putin arranged a trap in Georgia. Moscow has made no wrong moves since the column of its tanks and armored vehicles entered the Roki Tunnel.

All hawkish statements of U.S. President George Bush notwithstanding, the rude error of Georgia manifested the double-standard policy of the West in respect of the sovereignty of certain states.

According to The Financial Times, Russia made clear it would do anything in the defended state despite the ceasefire deal for South Ossetia. The agreement that both parties inked Tuesday could be interpreted differently, and Georgia, with its smashed army, has no pressurizing levers except the worldwide diplomatic support.

It is obvious where this informational war is going. Russia lost the informational battle during the campaign in Georgia. However, the informational balance seems to be shifting towards Kremlin. It is not that they are spinning the facts, they have the right facts on hand, they just need to prove to the world that they were right. Not to say that this is all clean politics, Russia just set everything up from the start, to have all the facts be in their favor, so they would not need to put any spin on information that they provide to the world. From previous conflicts, Russia has learned, that if something is not calculated well, it won’t matter how good your Foreign Minister is, or how much diplomatic support you have, it boils down to whose side the facts are on. Ethnic cleansing, mass bombardments, and use of force in the first place, are all synonymous with Georgia’s actions in the war, not with Russia. So even though Saakashvili spent his every waking moment speaking to the media, Russia planned things carefully. Notice how calm Lavrov is, he knows that the battle of Western hearts and minds would’ve never been won while the campaign was on the move. Nevertheless, now is the time that Russian Foreign Ministry will present hard facts and raw material to justify their actions and show the world that Russia is a world power to be dealt with. That it won’t stand on its knees and bow down to the will of Western leaders.

Ukraine and the Black Sea Fleet

Ukrainian President Yuschenko in the past few days signed more orders regarding the Black Sea Fleet than he has in the past year, probably. One of the saying that the Black Sea Fleet has to warn the Ukrainian government of it movements out of port not less than 72 hours in advance, another requiring the Russian Fleet to fly Ukrainian colors and flag on its masts, and a row of other ridiculous orders. Anatoliy Nagovitsin, a Russian high ranking officer in Moscow said, “We have only one chief of armed forces – and that is the President of the Russian Federation – of the Black Sea Fleet, and requests and orders from the outside are not legitimate” SOURCE.

It is ridiculous to listen to Yuschenko, as he basically says that the Black Sea Fleet is “allowed” to use Ukraine’s territorial waters and the port in Crimea as long as it is for show. Russia needs its fleet in the Black Sea and the navy played a vital role in the war in Georgia. Russian ships are there to do their duties to Russia, not to Ukraine. However, if Ukraine is threatened, Russian Navy will not stand by as their neighbor gets attacked. Yuschenko also said that Russian Navy’s actions in the war with Georgia could mean terrorist attacks against it while harbored in Ukraine, which will mean loss of Ukrainian life (I apologize for using personal opinion here, but Ukraine and Georgia are tight allies, and I highly doubt that Saakashvili will have spec ops operations conducted on Ukrainian territory). Yuschenko is trying to show the West that he has some power over Russia and that he is ready to join NATO. Although he himself is contemplating entering the Northern Alliance, because they may just stand by as their ally gets put in its place by Russians.

Georgian Borders

Neither Abkhazia nor South Ossetia will remain as part of Georgia. After what the Georgians have done to them, there is no going back. Sergei Lavrov, in an interview to Echo Moskvi, a Russian news radio station, said that “you can forget about Georgian territorial integrity”. Georgia will not be able to keep control of a people that do not want to be part of it for one, and against whom they committed such atrocities. According to Lavrov, giving their territories back to Georgia would be like a slap in the face to the South Ossetian and Abkhz people. that would mean that they fought and died for nothing more than another stand off. “It is impossible to imagine that Georgian peace keepers will be able to do anything in South Ossetia, and that not Russia’s position, that’s an objective fact” added Lavrov.

No matter what Unites States will say, not matter what resolution will be in place in the end, one things is definite. Russia will not allow South Ossetia or Abkhazia to be integrated back into Georgia. Only the autonomous republics’ independence will put in place a firm agreement between Russia and the West. Otherwise is will be a fragile, shaky peace, that may erupt into an even bigger conflict than what has happened.

The Conclusion

Washington’s double standards right now will bite them back, and bite back hard. All of U.S. allies are watching Washington’s reactions to this conflict in awe, as now they are sure whether the U.S. will come to their aid in case of need. NATO is losing its reliability, it seems, with regard to the smaller nations involved.

Ukraine is trying to put its few words into the conflict and is trying to get Russia angered over the Black Sea Fleet. However, never forget about the FSB, for one. The Russian agents are informing Kremlin of every move in Kiev. If anything starts brewing, Moscow will not stand by, it will make it’s point clear and intentions known. The Ukrainian government will have to deal with its citizens begging them not to go to war with the Russians, because they know what a real war is – Ukraine will never forget World War 2 and the Germans.

Georgia’s borders are no longer what they are. Although officially Georgia’s borders are the same as they were a month ago, expect to see South Ossetia and Abkhazia have their independence recognized sometime in the near future. There is no other option. The people of these two republics will never want to live under the rule of a regime that they curse and despise.

On Western Media and Ukraine (South Ossetian War)

Representation of South Ossetian Conflict in the U.S.

Watching CNN’s Loub Dobbs, the only things that an average American will get out of watching their news is that Russia is invading, burning, raping, and pillaging. And the only proof of that is Saakashvili’s interview. The man does not even talk to his people in Georgian. He speak in English, broken English. It is appalling, that the American mass media is getting it’s “facts” from a man that started this mass. It’s is hard not to draw parallels between U.S./Yugoslavia in the 1990’s and Russia/Georgia right now. How can a country, that split a nation into parts and threw a people into chaos, criticize actions that actually try to protect integrity of all people involved? It is not that Russia does not have its own agenda in the region, it’s just that U.S. has no right to critisize Kremlin for its action, as they are more justified than U.S. getting involved in Yugoslavia.

The Informational War (Cont’d)

It has been previously mentioned in this blog, that Russia is losing the informational war with Georgia. However, finally Western reporters have been able to take a look at Georgian atrocities. A Russian freelance reporter has been quoted on www.lenty.ruas saying that when he visited the town of Gori, where Saakashvili said most Georgian civilian casualties are, he saw a direct hit on an ammo cache. The exploding rounds flew everywhere, as expected with an exploding ammo depot, and the shells actually hit buildings near it. It was not Russian airplanes hitting the buildings and deliberately targeting the civilian population, unlike the first days of the war when the Georgian army launched “Grad” (translation from Russian – hail) missiles at civilian targets such as hospitals, schools, and apartments. As has been stated in previous posts, Georgian army is scattering. The civilian population does not want a war with the Russians. However, the Georgian President wants to portray the Russians as villains, so the U.S. will gets its forces involved. Really, though, Washington does not care much for the Georgian population or Saakashvili. The Western leaders cannot have Russia seen in good light. This will simply put an indefinite hold on their agenda.

Is U.S. a Good Friend?

Ukranian people are becoming skeptical. And article in www.utro.ru. addressed this issue. Yuschenko himself is faltering. He does not want a repeat of South Ossetia to happen in Ukraine in Crimea. He is actually contemplating not joining NATO in order to avoid an all out war with Russia, which will take a lot more lives that the South Ossetian Conflict. Yuschenko is starting to debate his good friendship with the U.S. It is understandable because he has been in Tbilisi and has witnessed the panic of the Georgian pro-Western government as the war with Russia slipping out of their control. U.S. troops will not be engaged in combat because neither country is part of NATO, as well as the U.S. troops are stretched too thin already, fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. If U.S. does decide to do anything in Georgia militarily, FSB will simply pay a nice sum of money to the Afghanis fighting for Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan to step up their attacks, which in turn will turn the U.S. citizens on the U.S. government and plunge the political scene within the U.S. into chaos. U.S. is not helping Georgia with anything but heavy diplomatic measures against Russia. That will not help Ukraine at all in case of war with Russia. Remember this as well, A huge chunk of people living in Ukraine, especially the eastern parts, are of Russian nationality, and although they live in Ukraine, they call themselves Russian. Yuschenko cannot count on his army completely, as people will not want to kill their own Slavic brothers. The Ukrainian politicians are feverishly trying to show that they have control over the Black Sea Fleet and Russian forces stationed there. It is all for show, however, as Russia will never sign any agreement that mandates the Fleer to notify Ukranian authorities 72 hours in advance of its movements and especially to fly a Ukranian flag.

The Conclusion

The U.S. media is becoming more and more biased. Although no direct ban on Russia media has been put inplace in the United States, for it will violate its own constitution, but no Russian news sources are being used in analysis of the events in Georgia.

Washington is becoming alarmed, that Yuschenko is losing faith in the U.S. as a trustworthy ally in case of a war with Russia.

The scales seem to be shifting towards a balance in the informational war with between Russia and the West. Those that are truly interested in learning what is really going on, will look at both the U.S. news, and Russian news. Here are a few that I look at before writing a post: www.cnn.com, http://www.rbcnews.com/, www.bbc.com, www.guardian.co.uk, www.utro.ru, www.lenta.ru, www.lenty.ru