Elections ‘08, Economics, and Recent Events in the Caucasus

Win-Win for the GOP

United States in general had a win-win situation in Georgia. If Russia took no action, or anything short of intervening in force in South Ossetia, the republican party was going to take credit for putting Saakashvili in power, promoting democracy that was fighting to for its right to exist, and so on and so forth. In case of Georgia losing the war, Republicans still benefit, because in the 1980’s Reagan, who was a Republican, kept the Soviets at bay, called it an “Empire of Evil”, and took credit for toppling the Soviet government and defeating the Soviet Union. Isn’t that just great, seeing as how Obama threatens to shake the Republicans up and bring about a lot of changes, against which all of G.O.P. is fighting so hard? Obamacan only do one thing in this situation, and that is to side with McCain’s reaction to the war in Georgia. Republicans are scared of Obama, and they know that the American people do not really care about Georgia or the South Ossetians. So at the expense of thousands of dead, and hundreds of thousands left without homes, the G.O.P. decided to better their falling chances of winning the elections.

It is understandable why the Republican party simply “has to” win these elections. Their businesses in the Middle East and all of the time and money invested in planning an attack on oil rich Iran would be wasted, for Obama is looking to openly talk with Tehran, and actually make progress towards stabilizing the U.S. relations with unfriendly countries in the region.

Oil, Once Again

Anyone that knows anything about economics, if a war is erupted ina  region, usually prices of goods increase. The goods coming from Middle East are *drum roll* OIL. Ever since the wars in the Middle East started, price of oil has steadily increased and those that trade the commodity – all politicians invest their money – have made good buck on the situation. Even better, politicians are on the “inside”, meaning, they know preemptively, what the official Washington will do, thus knowing, not speculating, on whether prices of commodities increase or drop.

In addition, the BP oil pipeline runs around Russia, through Georgia. If the constant supply of oil through the region is threatened, prices will increase, as speculators in the market will anticipate a drop in the supply. The price of oil in the recent months has been steadily fluttering around $120-$130/barrel. If the prices has more or less been constant, then no one makes money. A decrease or increase is needed for those that have a lot invested in the commodity.

Putting the Two Together

George W. Bush and many other politicians are reaping the fruits (cash) of the recent events in in Georgia. Bush is a lame duck and now he is using all the power and information he has to make a buck. You can’t blame him, his approval ratings are down, his party has virtually turned on him, so now he is trying to get as much benefit from this as he can retire and live in peace.

The GOP, knowing that their credibility has been damaged is trying to use their Cold War reputation to keep its representation in the White House – basically have a Republican President. To do so, it only makes sense that if democracy is threatened (anywhere in the world) by an old nemesis (Russia), then it can say, “We’ve toppled their regime before, and we’ll do it again!”. Which is exactly what is happening. Republicans do not want change, which is the platform on which Obama is running. Obama is not ignorant, he knows that this war in the Caucasus is damaging his chances of winning the Presidential race. After all, McCain is considered to have military experience, although questionable, and Obama is just young, black Senator from Illinois.

CNN and Western Media in South Ossetia

Yellow Journalism

CNN is a trusted news source in the Western world. It made a name for itself, and it’s editors know this. Eduard Kakoiti, while visiting a hospital near Tskhinvali, saw a CNN journalist, who was with the Georgian Army at the time of attack. He was quoted by RBC to say that the journalist told him, that he was told there will be a form of “blitzkrieg”. That the Georgian Army will sweep into South Ossetia and will topple the South Ossetian government. Well, this did not happen, and the journalist, remaining unnamed, was actually wounded and taken to a hospital in South Ossetia. Kokoiti also was quoted, as saying that when the journalist goes back to the U.S., he should tell the truth about the conflict. Needless to say, the journalist will most likely never release his encounter with the South Ossetian leader to the Western public, and CNN will most likely do everything it can, so the story does not leak out.

CNN also is accused of using the wrong footage to cover the events in Georgia. In a nutshell, CNN is accused of using videos of Tskhinvali, to demonstrate destruction of Gori. Not only is this copyright infringement (the videos shot by Russian camera men belong to them, if privately shot, or to the TV company, for whom the journalist works), but this is disinformation of the masses. It is the biggest crime that is imaginable. If the U.S. does not have the decency to calm down Saakashvili and tell him not to bomb civilian population, at least make sure the mass media presents true facts. Here, are two videos. The first video was shot by the man that speaks in the second video. The first video shows Tshkinvali, capital of South Ossetia. Second video is in English and requires no translation.

Fox News Controversy

Fox News Studio B’s anchor Shepard Smith has shamelessly been rude on live TV to survivors from South Ossetia – 12 year old Amanda Kakoeva (an american-ossetian living in the U.S.) and her aunt Laura Tadeeva-Koreviski. An interview was set up to give live accounts of what happened in South Ossetia. Obviously, FOX did not get the storyline they needed, instead, they got two survivors blaming Saakashvili. Both were visiting their relatives in South Ossetia when the Georgian Army attacked. Smith continuously interrupt the guest speakers in places where they talk about Georgian President’s Saakashvili Army bombing civilians and committing war crimes. Towards the end of the video, Laura is interrupted by Shepard Smith abruptly to go to commercial. Both were quoted later as saying they were really pressured into not saying what they had to say, but seeing this was live television, they took the opportunity to do so. See for yourselves:

The Conclusion

Saakashvili went out of line during his military operations. Now, the West is faced with “inconvenient truth”. Those in power will do their best, to turn the mass media away from the reality of the conflict. As was mentioned before on this blog, Russia has won on the battlefield, but the media war is being lost. Not completely, but it is slowly slipping out of their control. It is vital, to analyze the tiniest details, when looking at politics, for the real reasons are never evident to the naked eye.

South Ossetia War – The Aftermath

South Ossetia

Tskhinvali is destroyed. Infrastructure is crippled. Thousands of people are refugees. The status of the breakaway republic is unknown. For a very odd reason, Western politicians are deciding for the Ossetians, whether they have the right to be independent or not. Well, once a precedent is set in politics, there is no turning back. That precedent was Kosovo and no Western leader has the right to tell the South Ossetians that they are to remain as part of Georgia. There is no way that the population of the Republic of South Ossetia is willingly going to be governed by a political leader that was willing to kill off the population as much as he could to make a point to the West. Saakashvili’s massive bombardments of civilian targets are proof enough that he doesn’t care about the people. His disregard for the destruction in the region is direct evidence for him not caring about the loss of capital, which could be used by Georgia in case of a victory. So in the end, South Ossetians will never willingly remain as part of Georgia’s territory. The loss of life, destruction, and ruthless motives are too much for them to forgive.

Abkhazia

Abkhazia took advantage of the military operations in South Ossetia to take a stance themselves. They remained within their disputed territories and kept losses to a minimum (in whole thanks to Georiga’s Army being focused on South Ossetia). Their disputed territory was the Kodori Gorge. Only two days after Abkhaz soldiers began military operations against Georgia, the Abkhaz flag was flown over the disputed territory (with direct help from the Russian Air Force). Just like South Ossetia, Abkhazia will take advantage of this opportunity to push towards its independence from Georgia.

**It is important to understand that Ossetians, Abkhazians, and Georgians are completely different people and nationalities. Although peaceful towards each other, they all like their autonomy and want to govern themselves.

Georgia

The future of Georgia’s political arena, and Georgia’s territorial integrity is under a big question mark. Georgia is exiting the Union of Independent Nations, which consists of all former Soviet states, although they are not gaining anything from doing so. The Georgian population, according to numerous reports from www.utro.ru, www.lenta.ru, www.kommersant.com, and other mass media web sites, are turning hostile towards Saakashvili and his government. According to an article in www.utro.ru, nearly everyone, and especially those that have lost someone in this, war are cursing Saakashvili and his government. People are crying and saying that they never wanted a war with Russia. That the two nations are neighbors and should not shoot at each other SOURCE. It is important to understand the civilian population of Georgia is disgruntled, demoralized, and in mourning. Georgia, as a nation, will most likely remove Saakashvili from the government. The population has no more faith him, and many journalists working the area are noticing the Georgians’ want for someone who has a head on their shoulders.

Ukraine

If the Black Sea Fleet is involved, Ukraine and U.S. will do everything in their power to get it out of Sevastopol ahead of the scheduled removal of the fleet in 2017. Ukraine has been giving Georgia weapons and military equipment for years. Ukraine and the Baltic states have almost completely re- equipped their armies with U.S. weapons. The old weapons were given as "gifts" to Georgia. In the end, Georgia became the most militarized and best equipped country of all the former Soviet Republics. After the military operations have ceased in the region, Ukraine has also decided to exit the Union of Independent Nations. So in short, Ukraine is being a thorn in Russia’s side because it saw an opportunity to make its stance known. They counted on Georgia in being successful in getting Russia on its knees. However, that did not happen, and now the Ukrainian government is trying to frantically get something out of this mess, so far unsuccessful. Yuschenkowants the Black Sea Fleet out, and to become part of NATO. With U.S. giving no military aid and doing nothing but diplomatic measures against Russia, Ukraine is debating whether it wants to be part of the northern alliance or not.

Russian soldiers near the town of Gori

Russia

Russia has made clear to the world that it is back in the game. It is able to defend its borders and its interests both diplomatically and militarily. It showed the Western leaders that it ahs learned from conflicts in Chechnya in how to deal with military operations regarding the civilian population (in Chechnya the civilian population was turned against them, and so as to not make the same mistake again, actions were planned carefully this time). The war in South Ossetia has made clear where the East and West sphere’s of influence are. Moscow has all of its actions justified and well calculated. Now, since the military actions have ceased, Russian diplomats will be tested. Nevertheless, Russian position is firm and well supported.

The Russian 58-th Army is making sure that the Georgian Army is disarmed and is taking all of Georgian military equipment with them, so Georgia will not be able to pick up arms again in the near future. The town of Gori, where most of the Georgian Army was stationed, has been demelitarized by the Russian Army. Control of the Gori region is being slowly transfered to the Georgian authorities. The whole purpose of Russian military being present in Georgia is disarmament of the Geogrian Army in the region.

The United States

If this conflict was not in U.S. interest, it would simply not happen. This war had two outcomes, either Russia shows that it has a say in the world politics again and it back up from its knees, or U.S. becomes dominating force in the region, with the ability to dictate to Russia its rules. The outcomes that we witnessed was that Russia is back in the game, and strong. With all the moves calculated ahead of time and with precision, Russian politicians showed Washington that Moscow will not tolerate anyone dictating their rules to them. U.S. goals are still not reached. To achieve dominance in the Caucasus region, it needed Georgia to do some more damage to Russia’s credibility. Ukraine does not have command of the Black Sea Fleet and it is powerless to do much about it, due to agreements signed in the 1990’s. Washington lost most of what it gambled with during the South Ossetian conflict.

The Conclusion

The overall conclusion to all of this is not final, however, many things have already been decided. Russia is back on its feet. It’s presence and weight was felt during the South Ossetian War. Kremlin did not have one miscalculated step. It was prepared for this conflict, because the arms of the FSB, just like the CIA, stretch far and the intelligence side of the conflict most likely knew everything ahead of time. Georgia is a crippled ally in the Caucasus. A "special project", according to Sergei Lavrov- Russian Foreign Minister. The project failed, and at the cost of thousands of lives and ruined nations. It will take years to rebuild infrastructure, military bases, and homes. People, however, will never look at the West the same way again.