Prediction

FULL ARTICLE From the way the world is going, the region where a cataclysmic event may happen is in the Middle East. There are too many sides fighting for power and dominance of the region, and each is pushing the envelope further and further, currently testing the other sides’ patience and diplomatic ability.

The world today does not want to see war, necessarily. However, the veterans of World War II are dying out. They are the ones that have seen how devastating and brutal a world war can be, and how even the most civilized countries are ready to indiscriminately kill civilians and demolish whole cities in order to gain a simple ability to sell something that is located in a different land.

Commerce is the name of the game, and those that have the most resources have the best commercial ability. Commerce is power and leverage. It is control of whole economies. The United States has been very discreet about imperial aspirations. The basics of empire expansion are control of resources for a purpose of selling them. Not everyone has the power to expand in such a manner, and most take the old-school route — that is, guns blazing and bombs flying, with tanks sweeping in and destruction in the armies’ path.

The most important resource allocation in the world right now is located in the Middle East. Also, the biggest rivalries are in the Middle East. The interesting thing is that it was Europe and the United States that created the reason for there to be conflict in this area. They sparked old rivalries anew in the Middle East by creating Israel as a state. It was a gesture of good will from the Allies and the USSR. However, dislocating a large portion of people and telling them that their rivals are now the owners of the soil is bound to get one side pissed off.

And guess who that side is: the whole Arab world. Now, I am not against the State of Israel, but it is the reason for instability in the Middle East today. With European and mainly America’s backing and support, Israel was able to muster up one of the…FULL ARTICLE

World’s Growing Interest in Africa

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Why is Africa all of a sudden coming up in the news more often? Evidence to that is the fact that news sources are coming out with more small stories about different African nations.

The caning of teachers in Tanzania, Zimbabwe’s elections, the civil war in Congo, the Ethiopian government, the potential to create an African Union and many other stories are appearing as headlines in many newspapers.

The answer is very simple – the continent with a lot of natural resources has been neglected for way over half of a century. Business opportunities are present in many parts of Africa. However, the instability of the regimes all over the continent turns potential investors away. Nations should participate actively in brining about stability in Africa for the sole reason of providing their domestic industries with business opportunities.

Most of the Middle East has been divided among corporations already. It is expensive and difficult to make a big name for a company in the Middle East unless it already has an extensive history and a world-wide recognised name. Nevertheless, this begins to create a sense of status quo in the business world because only the big players are allowed to participate in the extraction and sale of natural resources. Thus, it is time to move to new lands that have not yet been conquered by the corporate world.

Here’s a list of some African countries and their resources listed on the website of the University of Iowa:

- Congo (Former Zaire): copper, cobalt, diamonds, crude oil, coffee
- Tanzania: cotton, coffee, sisal, cashew nuts, tobacco
- Nigeria: oil, minerals, rubber, cocoa
- Kenya: tea, coffee, horticulture products, petroleum products
- Ghana: gold, diamonds, timber, aluminum
- South Africa: gold, diamonds, metals
- Ethiopia:  small reserves of gold, platinum, natural gas, hydropower

What is important to note that all of these countries, except for Congo (due to its instability), have been recently provided with financial help from the World Bank and the IMF – the two giants of global politics that have the power to decide whether certain countries sink or float. Looking at the map of the world it is easy to see the strategic location of many of these few African nations. Some provide access to ports, some provide resources, and in most cases those that provide access to ports also provide a connection to nations that are rich with resources.

Africa may become the next business ‘El Dorado’. China is already taking advantage of this ‘unconquered’ continent. By the end of 2006 direct Chinese trade with Africa has reached $US 50 billion. That’s not considering the growth in the last two years and the investments made by the IMF and the World Bank. All things considered, expect more extensive media coverage of Africa in the close future and more international interest in the continent in the years to come.

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U.S. Debt in Chinese Coffers

Full article can be viewed on RussiaToday site and I would appreciate any comments to be made on this page.

A Bloomberg report recently stated that China has become the biggest U.S. treasuries holder, surpassing Japan. China holds $585 billion worth of U.S. treasuries, compared to Japan holding $573.2 billion.

Underneath the market transactions and commercial trading, there is a reason for Beijing’s interest in holding U.S. Treasuries and financing U.S. debt during today’s economic crisis. Think of it in simple terms: the U.S. is now in the pocket of China. Beijing’s willingness to help America finance its debt is simply a way of gaining political leverage.

China’s Leverage Over America

Tibet and Taiwan have long been sticking points between Washington and Beijing. Nevertheless, Americans have not spoken out against China’s lack of personal or political freedoms, nor has Washington expressed concern over China’s policies. It is very simple – America is depending more and more on Chinese investments, which gives the Chinese leverage over Washington in case the latter decides to criticize Beijing over its policies regarding Taiwan or Tibet, or if the White House meddles in China’s internal affairs.

Let’s think back to Economics 101:

GDP = Consumer Expenditure + Investments + Government Spending + Net Exports.

The Chinese imports into America in 2007, according to the U.S.-China Business Council, totaled $321.5 billion. U.S. exports to China (primarily specialized high-tech equipment and goods) have totaled $65.2 billion. This creates a negative balance on the U.S. side of the equation of -$256.3 billion.

Although the exports and imports part of the GDP equation is fairly small (approximately 5-6%), the Chinese stake in the government variable is double its investment in the net exports sector. The total U.S. balance in the net exports sector for 2007 was -$700.258 billion, which is about 37% of the U.S. trade balance.

Nevertheless, the goods that are imported from China for $1, for example, are sold for triple that value in the United States. This gives China a stake in the Consumer Expenditure part of the GDP. The major consumer products (clothing, electronics, etc) are a crucial part of U.S. retail business, in which the Chinese manufacturers dominate.

In addition, China’s businessmen have invested in American companies, holding stocks and corporate bonds that are essential to the big corporations’ survival. This gives Beijing power over the investment side of the U.S. economy.

Chinese control over such a large chunk of the U.S. economy gives Beijing a lot of power over the U.S. It is no wonder why America is not active in its criticism of China’s violation of the human rights their system of government.

Why Does This Matter?

The importance of the Chinese financing the U.S. debt is that Beijing can pressure Washington to stand by and allow Beijing to continue on its course of human rights violations and authoritarian control over the population.

In addition to this, the Chinese can use their economic influence to strong-arm America on key matters, such as allowing more Chinese companies to gain a share in the U.S. market, keeping the U.S. military from meddling in Taiwan and Tibet – in short, letting China do what it wants without criticism or repercussions.

The United States has been doing similar operations in South America, Nigeria, and many nations in Southeast-Asia. Now, however, China is using the same tactics to take advantage of the current economic crisis. The advantage is the leverage that they gain in the political arena will allow them more freedom to do what they want and to expand as an emerging power.

The New Politics of the XXI Century

The New “Iron Curtain”

The United States has been accusing Russia of fueling a new Cold War and wanting to set up a new “Iron Curtain”. It is, however, the United States that is setting up a new type of a “curtain”. Let’s call it the “blinds”. It is a good analogy, for whenever Washington does not want to their citizens to know something, they simply close them, and open them whenever it is safe for them to receive harmless information from their Eastern counter parts. The Iron Curtain during the Soviet Era was basically the border between the West and the East. Politicians today are children of the Cold War. No matter what happens in the political arena, Western political leaders will still see Moscow as a threat to the “free world” and Russians as drunk, bear-wrestling people with think accents. U.S.S.R. had satellite nations, which were basically a buffer zone in case of an attack from the West. Today, that buffer zone has been eliminated, and Washington could not be happier. American troops can actually be on the border of Russia in broad daylight. the Baltic States, Ukraine, Georgia, are all lead by former or current American citizens. There are hundreds of “political” and Pentagon-employed advisors in those countries “helping” make decisions. United States accusing Russia of making a new Iron Curtain is absurd, due to the fact that the United States has been slowly creeping up to Russian borders. The “blinds” are set between Russia and the United States, running through the borders of the Baltic States, Ukraine, and Georgia.

The E.U.

The European Union is a great idea, and has worked out well so far, for the most part. The Europeans have been doing nothing but mediating talks and conflicts, and most countries of the E.U. have avoided getting involved in conflicts in the Middle East and other places around the globe. The E.U. will always side with Washington, for Europe has never liked that Russia has so much control over the resource market. The only way to keep the “Russian Bear” at bay, is to have a big power have some leverage. That big power with leverage is the United States. E.U.’s has and oil, at least most it, comes from Russia. Europeans don’t have many resources left on their land, so they really depend on the eastern neighbor. Their politics are purely business. Although its citizens make fun of Americans and their politics, E.U. and U.S. need each other. E.U. needs the United States for pressure on Russia, and United States needs E.U. to have the power that it has. If E.U. become indifferent to U.S. politics and decides to be nutural, U.S. will stop being a big power. Nevertheless, the commercial markets and interdependency on financial and capital exchange will keep the two sides of the Atlantic bound for a long time.

Modern Political Drive

Today politicians are driven not by ideologies (Communism vs. Democracy during the Cold War), but by money. So, today’s political world should be analyzed just like a business is, but on a much bigger scale. Biggest of them all, actually. Almost every leader of any country makes decisions based on his potential financial gains, and utilizes tax payers’ money to do his dirty work. In essence using someone else’s funds to pay for business intelligence and research. President George W. Bush has stake in United Defense, Carlyle Group, and numerous other industries that relate directly to his administration’s agenda and goals. Vladimir Putin, just like most of Russian politicians have stake in Gazprom, Rosneft, and other companies that are ultimately in charge of natural resources. So, no matter what these or any other leaders say about “noble” motives for the actions (i.e. territorial integrity, anti-ethnic genocide, human rights, bringing down dictatorships, etc.), the underlying motives are always business. And if any good for the people is actually achieved, it is simply something done along the way to the ultimate goal of personal financial gain. Ideologies no matter govern political decisions. It is business, and just as was mentioned previously in this blog, resources are the sole reason for any major armed conflict. Morris 108 laid out the last major armed conflict motive very well,

“The BP run BTC pipeline is the only valuable item in Georgia, the only thing to fight over, and just 2 weeks ago, the promise of it being filled with Kazakh oil disappeared. And it disappeared into Russia’s hands. Within a week the pipeline was blown up, and the Georgian offensive started.” Full Article Here

Another example is Sudan. United States politicians, to keep citizens of the U.S. happy, have been criticizing the events in Darfur. However, no direct action has been taken. None of the world really has, and that is because Sudan doesn’t have enough resources in it’s land to have interest of big businesses. Today, ethics have nothing to do with big political decisions of any player of the Big Game.

China and the Rest of Asia

China has been knocking on Siberia’s door for decades. Starting with earliest provocations along Amur and Ussuri rivers, biggest of them all being on Damanskiy Island in 1969 with tens of Russian border troops killed in open armed conflict and hundreds of Chinese soldiers killed (thanks to introduction of the new “Grad” system, which was also used by Georgians in the South Ossetian War). China, although has a lot of sparsely settled land the West, has most of the populations living along the Pacific Coast, because a lot of its resources and jobs are in major cities, all of which are along the Eastern Coast. Once again, resources come into play. China, today, imports a lot of resources. It’s exports are slowing down (read China Today’s trade section, and you will notice this trend as well). It’s population is growing. Russia is the target of the People’s Republic because of the abundance of resources. The abundance of living space, resources, and business opportunity drives the Chinese to keep disputing over Russian territories and they actually send people into Russia to live, to drive out the Russian population, so some time in the future, they will have no problem having population support of historically Russian regions wanting to join PRC (smart, you have to admit).

The rest of Asia is simply living in their own world. They have enough problems of their own, and their leaders have no problem being corrupt and making cash. If anything, leaders of most Asian countries don’t want to be involved in the politics on the world scale, for it will bring too much attention to their corrupt governments.

The Conclusion

Smartest political players have already transitions into the 21st century mentality, that business runs everything. Expect events to heat up from here on in. The South Ossetia War in Georgia has started a new crack between the East and the West. Sides are going to be chosen, and the alliances made within the next few years will remain such for decades on. A new Cold War, more ferocious and dangerous has begun. This one, however, is not of ideologies between the West and the East, it is a war of business interests between resource rich, and resource needy.