Gas Tug-o-War

FULL ARTICLE HERE Aside from being an essential element in heating homes during the coldest time of the year, Russian gas is a political tool. It is a tool for the U.S.-sponsored Ukrainian government as well as Moscow. However, what are the goals being pursued? It is not just to show might and power over Europe. That actually would hurt Russia in the long run with no real short term benefits either. The current gas dispute between Moscow and Kiev is actually a continuation and a move forward in trying to discredit each other and win over the majority support of the population.

Just to recap, President Yuschenko and his government tried to discredit the Russian Black Sea Fleet and taint Russia’s reputation in Ukraine during and after the conflict in the Caucasus between Russia and Georgia in August 2008. Yuschenko was not successful in getting the Fleet out of Sevastopol and did not change the population’s outlook on Russia. One thing did become evident – Ukraine is split into East and West, Eastern Ukraine being pro-Russian and Western part being more pro-Western. Also, Yuschenko’s government is not as popular as some, especially in Washington, had hoped for.

Transit of gas is one of the best trumps in Russia’s hands. If the observers that are supposed to monitor the flow of gas through Ukraine find any disruptions that can potentially damage Ukraine’s credibility, Moscow will score a big win in this tug-o-war on many levels. First, the credibility of President Yuschenko’s government will be dealt a big blow. Second, Moscow would score an indirect win against the U.S. in global politics. Lastly, the EU will be more reluctant to consider Ukraine for membership.

If Russia is successful in discrediting Yuschenko’s government, Washington will suffer the biggest loss. Having put a lot of effort into getting the current Ukrainian government in place and putting even more…FULL ARTICLE HERE

CNN and Western Media in South Ossetia

Yellow Journalism

CNN is a trusted news source in the Western world. It made a name for itself, and it’s editors know this. Eduard Kakoiti, while visiting a hospital near Tskhinvali, saw a CNN journalist, who was with the Georgian Army at the time of attack. He was quoted by RBC to say that the journalist told him, that he was told there will be a form of “blitzkrieg”. That the Georgian Army will sweep into South Ossetia and will topple the South Ossetian government. Well, this did not happen, and the journalist, remaining unnamed, was actually wounded and taken to a hospital in South Ossetia. Kokoiti also was quoted, as saying that when the journalist goes back to the U.S., he should tell the truth about the conflict. Needless to say, the journalist will most likely never release his encounter with the South Ossetian leader to the Western public, and CNN will most likely do everything it can, so the story does not leak out.

CNN also is accused of using the wrong footage to cover the events in Georgia. In a nutshell, CNN is accused of using videos of Tskhinvali, to demonstrate destruction of Gori. Not only is this copyright infringement (the videos shot by Russian camera men belong to them, if privately shot, or to the TV company, for whom the journalist works), but this is disinformation of the masses. It is the biggest crime that is imaginable. If the U.S. does not have the decency to calm down Saakashvili and tell him not to bomb civilian population, at least make sure the mass media presents true facts. Here, are two videos. The first video was shot by the man that speaks in the second video. The first video shows Tshkinvali, capital of South Ossetia. Second video is in English and requires no translation.

Fox News Controversy

Fox News Studio B’s anchor Shepard Smith has shamelessly been rude on live TV to survivors from South Ossetia – 12 year old Amanda Kakoeva (an american-ossetian living in the U.S.) and her aunt Laura Tadeeva-Koreviski. An interview was set up to give live accounts of what happened in South Ossetia. Obviously, FOX did not get the storyline they needed, instead, they got two survivors blaming Saakashvili. Both were visiting their relatives in South Ossetia when the Georgian Army attacked. Smith continuously interrupt the guest speakers in places where they talk about Georgian President’s Saakashvili Army bombing civilians and committing war crimes. Towards the end of the video, Laura is interrupted by Shepard Smith abruptly to go to commercial. Both were quoted later as saying they were really pressured into not saying what they had to say, but seeing this was live television, they took the opportunity to do so. See for yourselves:

The Conclusion

Saakashvili went out of line during his military operations. Now, the West is faced with “inconvenient truth”. Those in power will do their best, to turn the mass media away from the reality of the conflict. As was mentioned before on this blog, Russia has won on the battlefield, but the media war is being lost. Not completely, but it is slowly slipping out of their control. It is vital, to analyze the tiniest details, when looking at politics, for the real reasons are never evident to the naked eye.

The New Politics of the XXI Century

The New “Iron Curtain”

The United States has been accusing Russia of fueling a new Cold War and wanting to set up a new “Iron Curtain”. It is, however, the United States that is setting up a new type of a “curtain”. Let’s call it the “blinds”. It is a good analogy, for whenever Washington does not want to their citizens to know something, they simply close them, and open them whenever it is safe for them to receive harmless information from their Eastern counter parts. The Iron Curtain during the Soviet Era was basically the border between the West and the East. Politicians today are children of the Cold War. No matter what happens in the political arena, Western political leaders will still see Moscow as a threat to the “free world” and Russians as drunk, bear-wrestling people with think accents. U.S.S.R. had satellite nations, which were basically a buffer zone in case of an attack from the West. Today, that buffer zone has been eliminated, and Washington could not be happier. American troops can actually be on the border of Russia in broad daylight. the Baltic States, Ukraine, Georgia, are all lead by former or current American citizens. There are hundreds of “political” and Pentagon-employed advisors in those countries “helping” make decisions. United States accusing Russia of making a new Iron Curtain is absurd, due to the fact that the United States has been slowly creeping up to Russian borders. The “blinds” are set between Russia and the United States, running through the borders of the Baltic States, Ukraine, and Georgia.

The E.U.

The European Union is a great idea, and has worked out well so far, for the most part. The Europeans have been doing nothing but mediating talks and conflicts, and most countries of the E.U. have avoided getting involved in conflicts in the Middle East and other places around the globe. The E.U. will always side with Washington, for Europe has never liked that Russia has so much control over the resource market. The only way to keep the “Russian Bear” at bay, is to have a big power have some leverage. That big power with leverage is the United States. E.U.’s has and oil, at least most it, comes from Russia. Europeans don’t have many resources left on their land, so they really depend on the eastern neighbor. Their politics are purely business. Although its citizens make fun of Americans and their politics, E.U. and U.S. need each other. E.U. needs the United States for pressure on Russia, and United States needs E.U. to have the power that it has. If E.U. become indifferent to U.S. politics and decides to be nutural, U.S. will stop being a big power. Nevertheless, the commercial markets and interdependency on financial and capital exchange will keep the two sides of the Atlantic bound for a long time.

Modern Political Drive

Today politicians are driven not by ideologies (Communism vs. Democracy during the Cold War), but by money. So, today’s political world should be analyzed just like a business is, but on a much bigger scale. Biggest of them all, actually. Almost every leader of any country makes decisions based on his potential financial gains, and utilizes tax payers’ money to do his dirty work. In essence using someone else’s funds to pay for business intelligence and research. President George W. Bush has stake in United Defense, Carlyle Group, and numerous other industries that relate directly to his administration’s agenda and goals. Vladimir Putin, just like most of Russian politicians have stake in Gazprom, Rosneft, and other companies that are ultimately in charge of natural resources. So, no matter what these or any other leaders say about “noble” motives for the actions (i.e. territorial integrity, anti-ethnic genocide, human rights, bringing down dictatorships, etc.), the underlying motives are always business. And if any good for the people is actually achieved, it is simply something done along the way to the ultimate goal of personal financial gain. Ideologies no matter govern political decisions. It is business, and just as was mentioned previously in this blog, resources are the sole reason for any major armed conflict. Morris 108 laid out the last major armed conflict motive very well,

“The BP run BTC pipeline is the only valuable item in Georgia, the only thing to fight over, and just 2 weeks ago, the promise of it being filled with Kazakh oil disappeared. And it disappeared into Russia’s hands. Within a week the pipeline was blown up, and the Georgian offensive started.” Full Article Here

Another example is Sudan. United States politicians, to keep citizens of the U.S. happy, have been criticizing the events in Darfur. However, no direct action has been taken. None of the world really has, and that is because Sudan doesn’t have enough resources in it’s land to have interest of big businesses. Today, ethics have nothing to do with big political decisions of any player of the Big Game.

China and the Rest of Asia

China has been knocking on Siberia’s door for decades. Starting with earliest provocations along Amur and Ussuri rivers, biggest of them all being on Damanskiy Island in 1969 with tens of Russian border troops killed in open armed conflict and hundreds of Chinese soldiers killed (thanks to introduction of the new “Grad” system, which was also used by Georgians in the South Ossetian War). China, although has a lot of sparsely settled land the West, has most of the populations living along the Pacific Coast, because a lot of its resources and jobs are in major cities, all of which are along the Eastern Coast. Once again, resources come into play. China, today, imports a lot of resources. It’s exports are slowing down (read China Today’s trade section, and you will notice this trend as well). It’s population is growing. Russia is the target of the People’s Republic because of the abundance of resources. The abundance of living space, resources, and business opportunity drives the Chinese to keep disputing over Russian territories and they actually send people into Russia to live, to drive out the Russian population, so some time in the future, they will have no problem having population support of historically Russian regions wanting to join PRC (smart, you have to admit).

The rest of Asia is simply living in their own world. They have enough problems of their own, and their leaders have no problem being corrupt and making cash. If anything, leaders of most Asian countries don’t want to be involved in the politics on the world scale, for it will bring too much attention to their corrupt governments.

The Conclusion

Smartest political players have already transitions into the 21st century mentality, that business runs everything. Expect events to heat up from here on in. The South Ossetia War in Georgia has started a new crack between the East and the West. Sides are going to be chosen, and the alliances made within the next few years will remain such for decades on. A new Cold War, more ferocious and dangerous has begun. This one, however, is not of ideologies between the West and the East, it is a war of business interests between resource rich, and resource needy.

And Now It Gets Dirty – Georgia, Russia, U.S., Ukraine, and EU

Let the Games Begin

The battles have ceased. Reports from journalists working in the area are coming in of a demoralized Georgian Army, or at least what’s left of it. Yuri Kotenok, a journalist of www.Utro.ru stationed in Gori, said the “The Georgian army is demoralized, there’s simply no one left to fight for the them… all of last night Russian peacekeepers spent fishing out Georgian soldiers – in uniform and already changed into civilian clothes - [hiding] in canals and rivers.” (http://www.utro.ru/articles/2008/08/13/759360.shtml) This, however, doesn’t mean that the politicians’ job is done. They are just getting started. Now that the events are winding down, the political leaders on both sides of the conflict, have all the information they need to fuel their arguments to push through their own agendas. The political games are just beginning.

How Does Ukraine Fit Into All of This?

The Ukrainians are jumping at the opportunity to put in their word in the conflict, this way realzing their goals. The Black Sea Fleet is a thorn in their side, Just like South Ossetia and Abkhazia were throns, and possible still remain, in the Georgian side. It is important to note, that Yuschenko has been fighting a political battle with the Kremlin over the Black Sea for a long time. The Crimean Peninsula is the most strategic point in the Black Sea for Russia. Wars have been fought over it since Peter the Great. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has been in Crimea since 1783. It is hard not to understand why Russia wants to hold on to it. Ukraine knows that Russia will do nearly whatever it takes to keep it. It is a political trump card for Ukrainian government.

Yuschenko, just like Saakashvili has become president solely because of U.S. backing. Yuschenko’s wife is a U.S. citizen. Once again, hard to imagine Yuschenko and Saakashvili not being friends, considering they were mentored by the same people in Washington. Like Saakashvili, Yuschenko wants Ukraine to be pro-west. Not something most people in Ukraine want, but makes political life for Kiev a lot easier. Although Yuschenko may think that Washington is supporting him because they want freedom and liberty for the Ukrainian people, but the real reason is because if Ukraine is part of NATO then U.S. and E.U. can both set up military bases right on the borders of the Russian Federaion. Yuschenko will do everything possible to kick the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, because then the Kremlin will not have a stake in Ukrainian politics and be limiting its chances in entering NATO.

Why All This Mess?

Resources. All wars have been fought to either resources or religion. The only people fighting in the name of religion are Islamic Radicalists, and even then, their leaders recognize, that if there’s nothing to gain economically, then there is no reason in fighting. Religion becomes a propaganda tool to push through fuel the soldier’s morale, in turn pushing through economic interests of the leaders. In short, natural resources are the key factor here, no matter what leaders may say their press conferences.

Russia the biggest country in the world. More untapped natural resources than anywhere else. The current government in Russia knows this, just like the rest of the world. Everyone a piece of the cake. The current Russian government will never let Western capitalists colonize their vast expanses in Siberia and the Far East. However, the West can put pressure on Russia, economic and political, if it has military bases right on its borders and can flip all of its current allies. Russia’s biggest allies are U.S.’s worst enemies.  Iran, Belarus, Kazakhstan are basically the only ones left that are holding off massive Western influence. Kazakhstan is not a big political player. They have enough problems of their own. However, Iran is the last ally that needs to be defeated before the U.S. and E.U. can put enough pressure on Russia to let them come in and start “deflowering” the virgin forests and other untapped natural resources.

Russia is the big prize. Whoever can get to it will have more money and power than anyone. However, it’s also the biggest challenge. No leader in the world, after Ghenghis Khan, has been able to conquer Russia or turn it around to be allies of the West.

The Conclusion

It is only in U.S. and E.U. interests to have Georgia fight the Russians in an open conflict. Contrary to what the naive Yuschenko may be saying, having Ukraine part of NATO is still best for the West only. Now is not the time for it, however. The Black Sea Fleet needs to be taken care of first, before Ukrain will be free of Russian forces. The U.S. polticians are businessmen. They have stakes in companies that tap natural resources. The reason for these politicians to be in offices is because then they can expand their business empires internationaly into countries where it has not been possible before. If Georgia were to win this war, and Ukrainian is succesfull at getting the Black Sea Fleet out, then U.S. can put enough pressure on Kremlin to let the Western capitalists enter the vast Russian expanses rich with resources that everybusinessman only deams of.

Untapped Russian Resources Are What The West Is After