U.S. Double Standards, Yuschenko and the Black Sea Fleet, Georgian Territorial Integrity

The Informational Battlefield (Cont’d)

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Russia Revealed Double Standards of the U.S.

Russia’s victory in the battle with Georgia has agitated western media, giving a solid ground for speculations about the increasing power of Moscow and about the progress in Russia’s relations with the West.
According to Britain’s The Times, the world witnessed a brilliant and tough chess game past week, where Moscow checkmated. Having sacrificed Kosovo, Iraq, NATO membership for Baltic states and deployment of the U.S. missile defense site in the Czech Republic and Poland, Putin arranged a trap in Georgia. Moscow has made no wrong moves since the column of its tanks and armored vehicles entered the Roki Tunnel.

All hawkish statements of U.S. President George Bush notwithstanding, the rude error of Georgia manifested the double-standard policy of the West in respect of the sovereignty of certain states.

According to The Financial Times, Russia made clear it would do anything in the defended state despite the ceasefire deal for South Ossetia. The agreement that both parties inked Tuesday could be interpreted differently, and Georgia, with its smashed army, has no pressurizing levers except the worldwide diplomatic support.

It is obvious where this informational war is going. Russia lost the informational battle during the campaign in Georgia. However, the informational balance seems to be shifting towards Kremlin. It is not that they are spinning the facts, they have the right facts on hand, they just need to prove to the world that they were right. Not to say that this is all clean politics, Russia just set everything up from the start, to have all the facts be in their favor, so they would not need to put any spin on information that they provide to the world. From previous conflicts, Russia has learned, that if something is not calculated well, it won’t matter how good your Foreign Minister is, or how much diplomatic support you have, it boils down to whose side the facts are on. Ethnic cleansing, mass bombardments, and use of force in the first place, are all synonymous with Georgia’s actions in the war, not with Russia. So even though Saakashvili spent his every waking moment speaking to the media, Russia planned things carefully. Notice how calm Lavrov is, he knows that the battle of Western hearts and minds would’ve never been won while the campaign was on the move. Nevertheless, now is the time that Russian Foreign Ministry will present hard facts and raw material to justify their actions and show the world that Russia is a world power to be dealt with. That it won’t stand on its knees and bow down to the will of Western leaders.

Ukraine and the Black Sea Fleet

Ukrainian President Yuschenko in the past few days signed more orders regarding the Black Sea Fleet than he has in the past year, probably. One of the saying that the Black Sea Fleet has to warn the Ukrainian government of it movements out of port not less than 72 hours in advance, another requiring the Russian Fleet to fly Ukrainian colors and flag on its masts, and a row of other ridiculous orders. Anatoliy Nagovitsin, a Russian high ranking officer in Moscow said, “We have only one chief of armed forces – and that is the President of the Russian Federation – of the Black Sea Fleet, and requests and orders from the outside are not legitimate” SOURCE.

It is ridiculous to listen to Yuschenko, as he basically says that the Black Sea Fleet is “allowed” to use Ukraine’s territorial waters and the port in Crimea as long as it is for show. Russia needs its fleet in the Black Sea and the navy played a vital role in the war in Georgia. Russian ships are there to do their duties to Russia, not to Ukraine. However, if Ukraine is threatened, Russian Navy will not stand by as their neighbor gets attacked. Yuschenko also said that Russian Navy’s actions in the war with Georgia could mean terrorist attacks against it while harbored in Ukraine, which will mean loss of Ukrainian life (I apologize for using personal opinion here, but Ukraine and Georgia are tight allies, and I highly doubt that Saakashvili will have spec ops operations conducted on Ukrainian territory). Yuschenko is trying to show the West that he has some power over Russia and that he is ready to join NATO. Although he himself is contemplating entering the Northern Alliance, because they may just stand by as their ally gets put in its place by Russians.

Georgian Borders

Neither Abkhazia nor South Ossetia will remain as part of Georgia. After what the Georgians have done to them, there is no going back. Sergei Lavrov, in an interview to Echo Moskvi, a Russian news radio station, said that “you can forget about Georgian territorial integrity”. Georgia will not be able to keep control of a people that do not want to be part of it for one, and against whom they committed such atrocities. According to Lavrov, giving their territories back to Georgia would be like a slap in the face to the South Ossetian and Abkhz people. that would mean that they fought and died for nothing more than another stand off. “It is impossible to imagine that Georgian peace keepers will be able to do anything in South Ossetia, and that not Russia’s position, that’s an objective fact” added Lavrov.

No matter what Unites States will say, not matter what resolution will be in place in the end, one things is definite. Russia will not allow South Ossetia or Abkhazia to be integrated back into Georgia. Only the autonomous republics’ independence will put in place a firm agreement between Russia and the West. Otherwise is will be a fragile, shaky peace, that may erupt into an even bigger conflict than what has happened.

The Conclusion

Washington’s double standards right now will bite them back, and bite back hard. All of U.S. allies are watching Washington’s reactions to this conflict in awe, as now they are sure whether the U.S. will come to their aid in case of need. NATO is losing its reliability, it seems, with regard to the smaller nations involved.

Ukraine is trying to put its few words into the conflict and is trying to get Russia angered over the Black Sea Fleet. However, never forget about the FSB, for one. The Russian agents are informing Kremlin of every move in Kiev. If anything starts brewing, Moscow will not stand by, it will make it’s point clear and intentions known. The Ukrainian government will have to deal with its citizens begging them not to go to war with the Russians, because they know what a real war is – Ukraine will never forget World War 2 and the Germans.

Georgia’s borders are no longer what they are. Although officially Georgia’s borders are the same as they were a month ago, expect to see South Ossetia and Abkhazia have their independence recognized sometime in the near future. There is no other option. The people of these two republics will never want to live under the rule of a regime that they curse and despise.

On Western Media and Ukraine (South Ossetian War)

Representation of South Ossetian Conflict in the U.S.

Watching CNN’s Loub Dobbs, the only things that an average American will get out of watching their news is that Russia is invading, burning, raping, and pillaging. And the only proof of that is Saakashvili’s interview. The man does not even talk to his people in Georgian. He speak in English, broken English. It is appalling, that the American mass media is getting it’s “facts” from a man that started this mass. It’s is hard not to draw parallels between U.S./Yugoslavia in the 1990’s and Russia/Georgia right now. How can a country, that split a nation into parts and threw a people into chaos, criticize actions that actually try to protect integrity of all people involved? It is not that Russia does not have its own agenda in the region, it’s just that U.S. has no right to critisize Kremlin for its action, as they are more justified than U.S. getting involved in Yugoslavia.

The Informational War (Cont’d)

It has been previously mentioned in this blog, that Russia is losing the informational war with Georgia. However, finally Western reporters have been able to take a look at Georgian atrocities. A Russian freelance reporter has been quoted on www.lenty.ruas saying that when he visited the town of Gori, where Saakashvili said most Georgian civilian casualties are, he saw a direct hit on an ammo cache. The exploding rounds flew everywhere, as expected with an exploding ammo depot, and the shells actually hit buildings near it. It was not Russian airplanes hitting the buildings and deliberately targeting the civilian population, unlike the first days of the war when the Georgian army launched “Grad” (translation from Russian – hail) missiles at civilian targets such as hospitals, schools, and apartments. As has been stated in previous posts, Georgian army is scattering. The civilian population does not want a war with the Russians. However, the Georgian President wants to portray the Russians as villains, so the U.S. will gets its forces involved. Really, though, Washington does not care much for the Georgian population or Saakashvili. The Western leaders cannot have Russia seen in good light. This will simply put an indefinite hold on their agenda.

Is U.S. a Good Friend?

Ukranian people are becoming skeptical. And article in www.utro.ru. addressed this issue. Yuschenko himself is faltering. He does not want a repeat of South Ossetia to happen in Ukraine in Crimea. He is actually contemplating not joining NATO in order to avoid an all out war with Russia, which will take a lot more lives that the South Ossetian Conflict. Yuschenko is starting to debate his good friendship with the U.S. It is understandable because he has been in Tbilisi and has witnessed the panic of the Georgian pro-Western government as the war with Russia slipping out of their control. U.S. troops will not be engaged in combat because neither country is part of NATO, as well as the U.S. troops are stretched too thin already, fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. If U.S. does decide to do anything in Georgia militarily, FSB will simply pay a nice sum of money to the Afghanis fighting for Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan to step up their attacks, which in turn will turn the U.S. citizens on the U.S. government and plunge the political scene within the U.S. into chaos. U.S. is not helping Georgia with anything but heavy diplomatic measures against Russia. That will not help Ukraine at all in case of war with Russia. Remember this as well, A huge chunk of people living in Ukraine, especially the eastern parts, are of Russian nationality, and although they live in Ukraine, they call themselves Russian. Yuschenko cannot count on his army completely, as people will not want to kill their own Slavic brothers. The Ukrainian politicians are feverishly trying to show that they have control over the Black Sea Fleet and Russian forces stationed there. It is all for show, however, as Russia will never sign any agreement that mandates the Fleer to notify Ukranian authorities 72 hours in advance of its movements and especially to fly a Ukranian flag.

The Conclusion

The U.S. media is becoming more and more biased. Although no direct ban on Russia media has been put inplace in the United States, for it will violate its own constitution, but no Russian news sources are being used in analysis of the events in Georgia.

Washington is becoming alarmed, that Yuschenko is losing faith in the U.S. as a trustworthy ally in case of a war with Russia.

The scales seem to be shifting towards a balance in the informational war with between Russia and the West. Those that are truly interested in learning what is really going on, will look at both the U.S. news, and Russian news. Here are a few that I look at before writing a post: www.cnn.com, http://www.rbcnews.com/, www.bbc.com, www.guardian.co.uk, www.utro.ru, www.lenta.ru, www.lenty.ru

Winners and Losers in the Georgia-Russia Conflict

The Battlefield Victory

Russian military has full control of the war in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgian mobilized reserves are running away in numbers, as stated by journalists at www.Utro.ru working in the area of the conflict.  A military observer, analyzing the town of Gori, where the 4th battalion of the Georgian army has been stationed, said that the4th battalion does not exist anymore. All over the ground there are uniforms, regalia, jeeps and trucks, along with heavy artillery and tanks are abandoned. The citizens of the town fled, fearing the the South Ossetian militia and the Russian army will start killing them, because of what the Georgians did in Tskhinvali. The Georgian President Saakashvili is trying to play it as Russians are on the move to oust him from power by force, take Tbilisi, and take over Georgia.

This is true, for the Russian armored column, which was said to be moving towards Tbilisi, has turned away back to the bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Georgian President, in frustration, is trying to accuse the Russian side continuous bombing and military operations. Nevertheless, no military operations are being carried out. Georgian civilians have been constantly quoted by the media to say that they don’t want this fighting. They don’t want their children dying for Saakashvili, as he does not present a rallying figure to them. They are aware, despite the Russian media blockade in Georgia, that Russia does not want to take over Georgia and to forcefully make it part of the Russian Federation. In short, the battle has been won by the Russian military. Now it is a question of keeping peace.

Russian soldiers on an APC passing a knocked out Georgian Tank

 

The Information Battlefield

This is the 21st century. Battles are not won solely on the battlefields anymore. Battles are fought in the press as well. This is where the Russians are taking a beating. The Georgian government, the U.S. government, and everyone else knows about the ignorance of the majority of the U.S. population. This may be blunt, but true. It has been easy for the Georgians to win the support of the American people. All that was needed was for CNN to run a short clip of Russian tanks crossing the Ossetian border, saying that the Russians have “invaded” Georgia. What can be more simple? Think back to when the campaign was started. The western media did not run anything on the Georgian MLRS “Grad” launching massive barrages of high-explosive shells on Tskhinvali. Why? Well, it’s not that important apparently, that close to 1500 civilians have been killed and a city leveled within the first 24 hours. It is more important to portray the Big Russian Bear as the bad guy marching into a small “democratic” (it’s hilarious to call it that, really) Georgia. The Georgian President Saakashvili has been coming out with new statements every hour or so of his waking time. If interesting at all, notice that his statement contradict themselves. It is safe to assume that he has no idea how to get himself out of this mess. He is comparable to a conrnered beast, which in the acts of trying to saveor hist last moments using anything at his disposal to save his skin. Saakashvili has been chracterizied as a paranoic, and has been prescribed a lot of medication, such as Prozac, to keep his head straight (If interested, bisit Russian news sites, if you can read Russian). Nevertheless, the Western media won the informational battle. They showed a few dead Georgian civilians (notice how they keep showing same pictures over and over of the same people) and the big bad Russian armored columns. It is only natural for people in the West to subconsciously  to put the two together and think that a huge force is moving on peaceful Georgia, forgeting that Georgia started the mess. All in all, Russia needs to step up their game in the Media. However, with a few allies left in the West, it is nearly impossible.

The Big Question: What’s in it for the U.S.?

It is really asstounding, to how ruthless politics can be. At the cost of an allied country, Washington in the end has benefitted most from this mess. Only thing left to do is stand by in awe and disgust. The NATO naval forces have amassed their ships in the Persian Gulf. Biggest naval build up in the region since the beginning of the war in Iraq. No one has noticed the build up of force in the region because the world’s attention is directed towards Georgia and the Olympics. Washington, knowing that the Olympics are not enough to keep the media occupied, had planned an escalation of the conflict in Georgia on the day of Olympics. The plan is fool proof. The media is stretched, and the world wants to know what is going on in Georgia and the Olympics, so the reporters cannot cover the build up in the Persian Gulf. Also, the forces in Kuwait are on full alert. The only times when forces are on full alert is when a big military operation is about to take place. Most likely it will be in Iraq.

The Conclusion

In the end, the battlefields in Georgia are controlled by the Russian 58-th Army. The Western leaders have already confirmed this. The media war will keep going for an undetermined amount of time. However, the battle may be lost, but the overall victory over the opinion of the masses in the West is still up for grabs. The true winner so far is the U.S. They have used this, if not planned this, to their advantage in the Persian Gulf regardeing Iran. Keep reading the news for updates. If the Western Media comes across facts of ethnic cleansing and Gerogian atrocities in the region, the Western leaders may have to turn their back and gamble away their Georgian ally.

!!Finally!!

As this analysis is being finsihed. I just came across a very interesting article by the British newspaper “The Guardian”. As I mentionaned in my previous post, the Russian will wait for things to settle and finally release the “hungry” Western journalists to look at the destruction of Tskhinvali http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/13/georgia.russia3

I highly suggest for everyone to read this, as this is the first article by the Western media to bring first hand accounts of the South Ossetian side of the war.