Prediction

FULL ARTICLE From the way the world is going, the region where a cataclysmic event may happen is in the Middle East. There are too many sides fighting for power and dominance of the region, and each is pushing the envelope further and further, currently testing the other sides’ patience and diplomatic ability.

The world today does not want to see war, necessarily. However, the veterans of World War II are dying out. They are the ones that have seen how devastating and brutal a world war can be, and how even the most civilized countries are ready to indiscriminately kill civilians and demolish whole cities in order to gain a simple ability to sell something that is located in a different land.

Commerce is the name of the game, and those that have the most resources have the best commercial ability. Commerce is power and leverage. It is control of whole economies. The United States has been very discreet about imperial aspirations. The basics of empire expansion are control of resources for a purpose of selling them. Not everyone has the power to expand in such a manner, and most take the old-school route — that is, guns blazing and bombs flying, with tanks sweeping in and destruction in the armies’ path.

The most important resource allocation in the world right now is located in the Middle East. Also, the biggest rivalries are in the Middle East. The interesting thing is that it was Europe and the United States that created the reason for there to be conflict in this area. They sparked old rivalries anew in the Middle East by creating Israel as a state. It was a gesture of good will from the Allies and the USSR. However, dislocating a large portion of people and telling them that their rivals are now the owners of the soil is bound to get one side pissed off.

And guess who that side is: the whole Arab world. Now, I am not against the State of Israel, but it is the reason for instability in the Middle East today. With European and mainly America’s backing and support, Israel was able to muster up one of the…FULL ARTICLE

How Can US Get Russia’s Support Over Iran?

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So, the gears are set in motion now as Barack Obama has sent an official letter to President Medvedev proposing to cease the European Missile Defense efforts in Poland and the Czech Republic if Moscow collaborates with Washington on pressuring Tehran to stop its nuclear enrichment program. This is not the way talks should begin over the European anti-missile shield and Iran between Moscow and Russia. Obama has not yet made a name for himself in the international arena, if anything, Hillary actually tainted the view of the way the world views the foreign policy of the new administration in Washington. At a press conference with the Spanish prime minister, Dmitriy Medvedev stated clearly that he is not going to settle for any exchanges with regard to the anti-missile defenses in Europe and that he viewed it as an unproductive approach. The implications of decisions made on the subject of cooperation between Moscow and Washington regarding Iran were discussed in an earlier article, so now, things start moving, and it looks like not in the direction which will actually bring the results intended.

Foreign Policy of the US

It is clear to anyone paying attention to politics that Obama does not have much experience with foreign policy and most likely will stumble along the way in his first year as he learns how other countries operate and how to deal with different nations. Entrusting his foreign affairs to Hillary is more than an indication that he is not yet at the level of knowledge about the international arena as one might hope. Obama won purely because of his domestic policy promising change to save the US from total collapse and good marketing. His foreign policy platform was only concerned with telling the Americans what they wanted to hear – stopping the war in Iraq.

Now, the reality sets in, and it is not as easy as it looks. America does not have the leverage that it had in the nineties over Moscow, when Yeltsin would pull back on certain national interests in return for support for the new Russia from the West. Obama’s letter to the Kremlin seems to indicate a lot of false assumptions over the way Russia has set itself in the international politics. The White House seems to put a lot of emphasis on the European anti-missile defense, not realizing that Russia is not really concerned with it as much as it is with further extending its influence in Central Asia and cooperation with Iran on weapons trading and technological research and development.

It is extremely wrong of Obama to try and put Russia in a position that would be beneficial only to the US national interests. International politics does not work like that. In the international scene today, if one county wants to further their national interests abroad they have to take into consideration the other side’s interest as well in order to facilitate cooperation in any given area. The new administration should not put pressure on Russia’s national security in order to get what they want. They need to give Russia something to benefit their national interest abroad in order to get Moscow’s cooperation. Considering the possible benefits of Moscow-Tehran relations for Russia, Washington will have to find another way and give a lot to with regard to Russian national interests.

Evidence of Direction

Every time a person representing a foreign policy speaks to anyone, they usually think about the way their words will be viewed else where. Clinton seems to miss this point. If there are two countries bumping heads, and a third country comes in and pledges support for one of the sides, it becomes an enemy of the other. As the saying goes, “My worst enemy’s worst enemy is my best friend.” So, ipso-facto Clinton’s words… CONTINUE READING HERE

Obama’s changes may have to wait

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Barack Obama ran on a platform of change, and it has come swiftly after his inauguration. The U.S. population is so excited about Obama taking office that they are forgetting that he is a politician and that his way to the White House was not all that clean.

He has come from Illinois – the most corrupt state in America. In just four years he has risen to be the leader of the most powerful nation on Earth, a journey that has taken many before him far longer to achieve.

Nevertheless, Obama has been inaugurated to the office of the President of the United States, and now the American nation will look at everything he does, for he has promised a lot. Primarily – change. Most likely the bulk of Obama’s first 100 days will be focused on showing Americans that he is really going to present them with the things he promised. Nevertheless, most of it will probably be all talk, for sudden change is never good and he will create many enemies even among those that have supported him throughout his campaign.

Still bringing up McCain

Obama ran against John McCain. Both men obviously did not like each other. One look at any of the debates between the two and especially McCain’s rallies show that the two were complete opposites. Yet, on the eve of the inauguration Obama and McCain stood together at a dinner promoting bipartisanship. Obama openly praised McCain for his efforts and praised him for being a worthy adversary in the race to the White House.

It is nothing but talk, however. Obama does not need McCain in his political life. The 2008 election has created such a big divide between the McCain and Obama supporters that the new President simply needs to make the Republican Party supporters feel that he is working in their favor as well. By praising McCain’s efforts and by acknowledging that McCain was motivated by “a pure and deeply felt love for his country” he has established himself as a President that will bring about more bipartisanship, or at least attempt to do it. Obama knows that most of the nation is behind him, he simply needs to keep up with his image that he created during his campaign. People expect him to be a leader that does something great, and most people appreciate that he has acknowledged his former opponent. President Obama is simply giving people what they want at the moment, and that is to feel that he represents every single person living in the U.S.

Distancing Himself from Bush

George W. Bush may well be the most disliked President in the history of the United States. War in Iraq and Afghanistan, a huge budget deficit, huge private profits for him and his close friends, and deregulation that ended his presidency with a financial crisis of epic proportions.

Barack Obama spent a lot of time preparing to take office. Some even say that he may have been preparing his inauguration speech and his cabinet way before he actually won the election. Regardless of what may be said or what theories may circulate, the White House web-page was changed a few hours following Obama’s inaugural address to the American people. It takes longer than a few hours to create such a functional and well-designed web-page.

Clearly the website is intended to be a first-hand news agency covering the events and daily operations of the President. Obama’s campaign focused on bringing the simpler…FULL ARTICLE HERE

American Bailouts – Keeping Europeans Away

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News about U.S. bailout packages have been on every newsstand and news website in the past months. There is talk constantly of American companies being bailed out and discussions about the topic are abundant. The stir is caused not because America is considered a superpower and not because United States economy is the symbol of economics success that many nations are aspiring for. It makes news because America is becoming less and less American. With the U.S. economy being the weakest that it has been since the Great Depression, many Europeans and Asians are taking advantage of this and buying out American companies and their assets.

The bailout packages that are being considered and hundreds of billions of dollars that have already been committed are aimed at buying up failing U.S. companies for one reason – to keep the U.S. economy dependant on itself and its own workforce rather than European parent companies and…

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Elections ‘08, Economics, and Recent Events in the Caucasus

Win-Win for the GOP

United States in general had a win-win situation in Georgia. If Russia took no action, or anything short of intervening in force in South Ossetia, the republican party was going to take credit for putting Saakashvili in power, promoting democracy that was fighting to for its right to exist, and so on and so forth. In case of Georgia losing the war, Republicans still benefit, because in the 1980’s Reagan, who was a Republican, kept the Soviets at bay, called it an “Empire of Evil”, and took credit for toppling the Soviet government and defeating the Soviet Union. Isn’t that just great, seeing as how Obama threatens to shake the Republicans up and bring about a lot of changes, against which all of G.O.P. is fighting so hard? Obamacan only do one thing in this situation, and that is to side with McCain’s reaction to the war in Georgia. Republicans are scared of Obama, and they know that the American people do not really care about Georgia or the South Ossetians. So at the expense of thousands of dead, and hundreds of thousands left without homes, the G.O.P. decided to better their falling chances of winning the elections.

It is understandable why the Republican party simply “has to” win these elections. Their businesses in the Middle East and all of the time and money invested in planning an attack on oil rich Iran would be wasted, for Obama is looking to openly talk with Tehran, and actually make progress towards stabilizing the U.S. relations with unfriendly countries in the region.

Oil, Once Again

Anyone that knows anything about economics, if a war is erupted ina  region, usually prices of goods increase. The goods coming from Middle East are *drum roll* OIL. Ever since the wars in the Middle East started, price of oil has steadily increased and those that trade the commodity – all politicians invest their money – have made good buck on the situation. Even better, politicians are on the “inside”, meaning, they know preemptively, what the official Washington will do, thus knowing, not speculating, on whether prices of commodities increase or drop.

In addition, the BP oil pipeline runs around Russia, through Georgia. If the constant supply of oil through the region is threatened, prices will increase, as speculators in the market will anticipate a drop in the supply. The price of oil in the recent months has been steadily fluttering around $120-$130/barrel. If the prices has more or less been constant, then no one makes money. A decrease or increase is needed for those that have a lot invested in the commodity.

Putting the Two Together

George W. Bush and many other politicians are reaping the fruits (cash) of the recent events in in Georgia. Bush is a lame duck and now he is using all the power and information he has to make a buck. You can’t blame him, his approval ratings are down, his party has virtually turned on him, so now he is trying to get as much benefit from this as he can retire and live in peace.

The GOP, knowing that their credibility has been damaged is trying to use their Cold War reputation to keep its representation in the White House – basically have a Republican President. To do so, it only makes sense that if democracy is threatened (anywhere in the world) by an old nemesis (Russia), then it can say, “We’ve toppled their regime before, and we’ll do it again!”. Which is exactly what is happening. Republicans do not want change, which is the platform on which Obama is running. Obama is not ignorant, he knows that this war in the Caucasus is damaging his chances of winning the Presidential race. After all, McCain is considered to have military experience, although questionable, and Obama is just young, black Senator from Illinois.