Prediction

FULL ARTICLE From the way the world is going, the region where a cataclysmic event may happen is in the Middle East. There are too many sides fighting for power and dominance of the region, and each is pushing the envelope further and further, currently testing the other sides’ patience and diplomatic ability.

The world today does not want to see war, necessarily. However, the veterans of World War II are dying out. They are the ones that have seen how devastating and brutal a world war can be, and how even the most civilized countries are ready to indiscriminately kill civilians and demolish whole cities in order to gain a simple ability to sell something that is located in a different land.

Commerce is the name of the game, and those that have the most resources have the best commercial ability. Commerce is power and leverage. It is control of whole economies. The United States has been very discreet about imperial aspirations. The basics of empire expansion are control of resources for a purpose of selling them. Not everyone has the power to expand in such a manner, and most take the old-school route — that is, guns blazing and bombs flying, with tanks sweeping in and destruction in the armies’ path.

The most important resource allocation in the world right now is located in the Middle East. Also, the biggest rivalries are in the Middle East. The interesting thing is that it was Europe and the United States that created the reason for there to be conflict in this area. They sparked old rivalries anew in the Middle East by creating Israel as a state. It was a gesture of good will from the Allies and the USSR. However, dislocating a large portion of people and telling them that their rivals are now the owners of the soil is bound to get one side pissed off.

And guess who that side is: the whole Arab world. Now, I am not against the State of Israel, but it is the reason for instability in the Middle East today. With European and mainly America’s backing and support, Israel was able to muster up one of the…FULL ARTICLE

How Can US Get Russia’s Support Over Iran?

FULL ARTICLE HERE

So, the gears are set in motion now as Barack Obama has sent an official letter to President Medvedev proposing to cease the European Missile Defense efforts in Poland and the Czech Republic if Moscow collaborates with Washington on pressuring Tehran to stop its nuclear enrichment program. This is not the way talks should begin over the European anti-missile shield and Iran between Moscow and Russia. Obama has not yet made a name for himself in the international arena, if anything, Hillary actually tainted the view of the way the world views the foreign policy of the new administration in Washington. At a press conference with the Spanish prime minister, Dmitriy Medvedev stated clearly that he is not going to settle for any exchanges with regard to the anti-missile defenses in Europe and that he viewed it as an unproductive approach. The implications of decisions made on the subject of cooperation between Moscow and Washington regarding Iran were discussed in an earlier article, so now, things start moving, and it looks like not in the direction which will actually bring the results intended.

Foreign Policy of the US

It is clear to anyone paying attention to politics that Obama does not have much experience with foreign policy and most likely will stumble along the way in his first year as he learns how other countries operate and how to deal with different nations. Entrusting his foreign affairs to Hillary is more than an indication that he is not yet at the level of knowledge about the international arena as one might hope. Obama won purely because of his domestic policy promising change to save the US from total collapse and good marketing. His foreign policy platform was only concerned with telling the Americans what they wanted to hear – stopping the war in Iraq.

Now, the reality sets in, and it is not as easy as it looks. America does not have the leverage that it had in the nineties over Moscow, when Yeltsin would pull back on certain national interests in return for support for the new Russia from the West. Obama’s letter to the Kremlin seems to indicate a lot of false assumptions over the way Russia has set itself in the international politics. The White House seems to put a lot of emphasis on the European anti-missile defense, not realizing that Russia is not really concerned with it as much as it is with further extending its influence in Central Asia and cooperation with Iran on weapons trading and technological research and development.

It is extremely wrong of Obama to try and put Russia in a position that would be beneficial only to the US national interests. International politics does not work like that. In the international scene today, if one county wants to further their national interests abroad they have to take into consideration the other side’s interest as well in order to facilitate cooperation in any given area. The new administration should not put pressure on Russia’s national security in order to get what they want. They need to give Russia something to benefit their national interest abroad in order to get Moscow’s cooperation. Considering the possible benefits of Moscow-Tehran relations for Russia, Washington will have to find another way and give a lot to with regard to Russian national interests.

Evidence of Direction

Every time a person representing a foreign policy speaks to anyone, they usually think about the way their words will be viewed else where. Clinton seems to miss this point. If there are two countries bumping heads, and a third country comes in and pledges support for one of the sides, it becomes an enemy of the other. As the saying goes, “My worst enemy’s worst enemy is my best friend.” So, ipso-facto Clinton’s words… CONTINUE READING HERE

Energy Wars: Diversify or Die

FULL ARTICLE HERE on Russia Today.

It would be very naïve to think that oil producing countries would all come together during the financial crisis in order to adjust prices to suit all the parties involved. Even more naïve would be to think that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, Iran and other oil economies are good friends. Well, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are definitely closer than, for example, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Nevertheless, competition drives prices lower and also takes away market share from other competitors in a given industry. According to the New York Times, Iran and Venezuela both need US $95/barrel in order to maintain balanced budgets. Russia’s ideal oil price is US $70/barrel. Saudi Arabia needs a price of US $55/barrel in order to meet … FULL ARTICLE HERE

Is U.S. missile defense necessary in Europe?

This original published article can be found here. RussiaToday is the original source of this article.

United States officials say that the missile defenses are aimed at Iran. However, Iran’s missiles and motives indicate no threat to Europe.
One of the main issues facing the new President-elect Barack Obama is the European Missile Defense System that the Bush administration has been trying to deploy in Poland and the Czech Republic. The Russian Federation has been fiercely protesting this action and has viewed the installation of Anti-Missile Defenses as a direct threat to its national security.

The Kremlin has threatened to counter the deployment U by placing short to mid-range Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad. U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack stated that the Anti-Missile Defenses are not aimed at Russia and expressed hope that one day Russia will see this. The threat that the defenses are aimed at, according to the White House, is Iran. But why would U.S. place missile defenses some 3,000 kilometers away from Iran? A look at the U.S. missile defense system and the Iranian ballistic missiles shows that Tehran’s strike on a major European city is highly unlikely.

U.S. Missile Defense

A missile defense system’s purpose is to intercept anything from ICBMs to smaller ballistic missiles. However, the missile defense systems in use today are not as sophisticated as one might think. They still need to be located close to the potential flight path of the missiles. An independent study by the American Physical Society (APS) in 2004 showed that, “effectiveness of interceptor rockets would be limited by the short time window for intercept, which requires interceptors to be based within 400 to 1,000 kilometers of the possible boost-phase flight paths of attacking missiles.”

The United States Army uses MIM-103 Patriot surface-to-air missile system (SAM). The Patriot system proved to be effective during the Gulf War in 1991, shooting down Iraqi SCUD missiles. Still, SCUDs are short to mid-range missiles, and the Missiles Defenses were located very close to the flight path of the missiles. There is no confirmation of U.S. Missiles Defense intercepting long range missiles far away from the launch point. According to the study by the APS, the missiles’ effectiveness decreases as the distance of the potential flight path of the ICBM or other missile increases.

Iran’s Missiles

Little is known about the Iranian missile program. However, the Iranian Mid-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) Fajr-3’s operational range is estimated at 2,300 kilometers. The Shahab-6 missile is Iran’s longest range ballistic missile with a range of 4,000-5,000 kilometers. Nevertheless, no official reports come of successful tests of this missile or any detailed information on the missile specifications in general. The last Iranian test that Washington has denounced was the Shahab-3, with a range of 2,300 kilometers.

Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s threat to destroy Israel has not been taken lightly. Iran’s defiance of the West has only added fuel to the fire. Tehran is not allowing international organizations to monitor their nuclear enrichment program and is refusing to shut it down all together. It is already known that Tehran is able to strike Israel, however, there have been no threats made to Europe. There is a possibility that Iran has nuclear capabilities, but they are still a threat to Israel, rather than Europe.

Putting it all together

According to Google Maps, direct path from Tehran to Raciborz, Poland (located between Warsaw and Krakow), is 3,114 kilometers, which is beyond the potential range of Shahab-3 and Fajr-3 missile and it is still unknown whether Iran has successfully made an ICBM capable of striking major European cities. Tehran is more likely to strike Israel rather than a European nation.

U.S. Missile Defenses are more in the way of a possible strike by Russia on Europe, rather than by Iran. Iran may be a good excuse to move missile defenses closer to Russian borders, also creating closer ties with countries that are more outspoken against Russia than most other European nations.

The European Missile Defense System looks like an attempt by the GOP to bring the world back into a Cold War-like state. This only makes sense, as they were the party that claimed the victory over the Soviet Union, when it collapsed in 1991. If things heat up around European Missile Defenses and Russia is made the “bad guy” again, the GOP will have a fighting change to reclaim the White House in 2012, riding on the wave of claims that they’ve defeated the “Evil Empire” once and they’ll do it again.

President-elect Obama has already said that the European Missile Defense system will have to prove its ability to protect Europe against Iran before he allows millions of dollars to be allocated for this project. Obama’s senior foreign policy adviser Denis McDonough stated that, Obama’s “position is as it was throughout the campaign: that he [Obama] supports deploying a missile defense system when the technology is proved to be workable.”

Aleksey Sazonov for RT

Winners and Losers in the Georgia-Russia Conflict

The Battlefield Victory

Russian military has full control of the war in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgian mobilized reserves are running away in numbers, as stated by journalists at www.Utro.ru working in the area of the conflict.  A military observer, analyzing the town of Gori, where the 4th battalion of the Georgian army has been stationed, said that the4th battalion does not exist anymore. All over the ground there are uniforms, regalia, jeeps and trucks, along with heavy artillery and tanks are abandoned. The citizens of the town fled, fearing the the South Ossetian militia and the Russian army will start killing them, because of what the Georgians did in Tskhinvali. The Georgian President Saakashvili is trying to play it as Russians are on the move to oust him from power by force, take Tbilisi, and take over Georgia.

This is true, for the Russian armored column, which was said to be moving towards Tbilisi, has turned away back to the bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Georgian President, in frustration, is trying to accuse the Russian side continuous bombing and military operations. Nevertheless, no military operations are being carried out. Georgian civilians have been constantly quoted by the media to say that they don’t want this fighting. They don’t want their children dying for Saakashvili, as he does not present a rallying figure to them. They are aware, despite the Russian media blockade in Georgia, that Russia does not want to take over Georgia and to forcefully make it part of the Russian Federation. In short, the battle has been won by the Russian military. Now it is a question of keeping peace.

Russian soldiers on an APC passing a knocked out Georgian Tank

 

The Information Battlefield

This is the 21st century. Battles are not won solely on the battlefields anymore. Battles are fought in the press as well. This is where the Russians are taking a beating. The Georgian government, the U.S. government, and everyone else knows about the ignorance of the majority of the U.S. population. This may be blunt, but true. It has been easy for the Georgians to win the support of the American people. All that was needed was for CNN to run a short clip of Russian tanks crossing the Ossetian border, saying that the Russians have “invaded” Georgia. What can be more simple? Think back to when the campaign was started. The western media did not run anything on the Georgian MLRS “Grad” launching massive barrages of high-explosive shells on Tskhinvali. Why? Well, it’s not that important apparently, that close to 1500 civilians have been killed and a city leveled within the first 24 hours. It is more important to portray the Big Russian Bear as the bad guy marching into a small “democratic” (it’s hilarious to call it that, really) Georgia. The Georgian President Saakashvili has been coming out with new statements every hour or so of his waking time. If interesting at all, notice that his statement contradict themselves. It is safe to assume that he has no idea how to get himself out of this mess. He is comparable to a conrnered beast, which in the acts of trying to saveor hist last moments using anything at his disposal to save his skin. Saakashvili has been chracterizied as a paranoic, and has been prescribed a lot of medication, such as Prozac, to keep his head straight (If interested, bisit Russian news sites, if you can read Russian). Nevertheless, the Western media won the informational battle. They showed a few dead Georgian civilians (notice how they keep showing same pictures over and over of the same people) and the big bad Russian armored columns. It is only natural for people in the West to subconsciously  to put the two together and think that a huge force is moving on peaceful Georgia, forgeting that Georgia started the mess. All in all, Russia needs to step up their game in the Media. However, with a few allies left in the West, it is nearly impossible.

The Big Question: What’s in it for the U.S.?

It is really asstounding, to how ruthless politics can be. At the cost of an allied country, Washington in the end has benefitted most from this mess. Only thing left to do is stand by in awe and disgust. The NATO naval forces have amassed their ships in the Persian Gulf. Biggest naval build up in the region since the beginning of the war in Iraq. No one has noticed the build up of force in the region because the world’s attention is directed towards Georgia and the Olympics. Washington, knowing that the Olympics are not enough to keep the media occupied, had planned an escalation of the conflict in Georgia on the day of Olympics. The plan is fool proof. The media is stretched, and the world wants to know what is going on in Georgia and the Olympics, so the reporters cannot cover the build up in the Persian Gulf. Also, the forces in Kuwait are on full alert. The only times when forces are on full alert is when a big military operation is about to take place. Most likely it will be in Iraq.

The Conclusion

In the end, the battlefields in Georgia are controlled by the Russian 58-th Army. The Western leaders have already confirmed this. The media war will keep going for an undetermined amount of time. However, the battle may be lost, but the overall victory over the opinion of the masses in the West is still up for grabs. The true winner so far is the U.S. They have used this, if not planned this, to their advantage in the Persian Gulf regardeing Iran. Keep reading the news for updates. If the Western Media comes across facts of ethnic cleansing and Gerogian atrocities in the region, the Western leaders may have to turn their back and gamble away their Georgian ally.

!!Finally!!

As this analysis is being finsihed. I just came across a very interesting article by the British newspaper “The Guardian”. As I mentionaned in my previous post, the Russian will wait for things to settle and finally release the “hungry” Western journalists to look at the destruction of Tskhinvali http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/13/georgia.russia3

I highly suggest for everyone to read this, as this is the first article by the Western media to bring first hand accounts of the South Ossetian side of the war.