Closer View Blog

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And Now It Gets Dirty – Georgia, Russia, U.S., Ukraine, and EU

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Let the Games Begin

The battles have ceased. Reports from journalists working in the area are coming in of a demoralized Georgian Army, or at least what’s left of it. Yuri Kotenok, a journalist of www.Utro.ru stationed in Gori, said the “The Georgian army is demoralized, there’s simply no one left to fight for the them… all of last night Russian peacekeepers spent fishing out Georgian soldiers – in uniform and already changed into civilian clothes – [hiding] in canals and rivers.” (http://www.utro.ru/articles/2008/08/13/759360.shtml) This, however, doesn’t mean that the politicians’ job is done. They are just getting started. Now that the events are winding down, the political leaders on both sides of the conflict, have all the information they need to fuel their arguments to push through their own agendas. The political games are just beginning.

How Does Ukraine Fit Into All of This?

The Ukrainians are jumping at the opportunity to put in their word in the conflict, this way realzing their goals. The Black Sea Fleet is a thorn in their side, Just like South Ossetia and Abkhazia were throns, and possible still remain, in the Georgian side. It is important to note, that Yuschenko has been fighting a political battle with the Kremlin over the Black Sea for a long time. The Crimean Peninsula is the most strategic point in the Black Sea for Russia. Wars have been fought over it since Peter the Great. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has been in Crimea since 1783. It is hard not to understand why Russia wants to hold on to it. Ukraine knows that Russia will do nearly whatever it takes to keep it. It is a political trump card for Ukrainian government.

Yuschenko, just like Saakashvili has become president solely because of U.S. backing. Yuschenko’s wife is a U.S. citizen. Once again, hard to imagine Yuschenko and Saakashvili not being friends, considering they were mentored by the same people in Washington. Like Saakashvili, Yuschenko wants Ukraine to be pro-west. Not something most people in Ukraine want, but makes political life for Kiev a lot easier. Although Yuschenko may think that Washington is supporting him because they want freedom and liberty for the Ukrainian people, but the real reason is because if Ukraine is part of NATO then U.S. and E.U. can both set up military bases right on the borders of the Russian Federaion. Yuschenko will do everything possible to kick the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, because then the Kremlin will not have a stake in Ukrainian politics and be limiting its chances in entering NATO.

Why All This Mess?

Resources. All wars have been fought to either resources or religion. The only people fighting in the name of religion are Islamic Radicalists, and even then, their leaders recognize, that if there’s nothing to gain economically, then there is no reason in fighting. Religion becomes a propaganda tool to push through fuel the soldier’s morale, in turn pushing through economic interests of the leaders. In short, natural resources are the key factor here, no matter what leaders may say their press conferences.

Russia the biggest country in the world. More untapped natural resources than anywhere else. The current government in Russia knows this, just like the rest of the world. Everyone a piece of the cake. The current Russian government will never let Western capitalists colonize their vast expanses in Siberia and the Far East. However, the West can put pressure on Russia, economic and political, if it has military bases right on its borders and can flip all of its current allies. Russia’s biggest allies are U.S.’s worst enemies.  Iran, Belarus, Kazakhstan are basically the only ones left that are holding off massive Western influence. Kazakhstan is not a big political player. They have enough problems of their own. However, Iran is the last ally that needs to be defeated before the U.S. and E.U. can put enough pressure on Russia to let them come in and start “deflowering” the virgin forests and other untapped natural resources.

Russia is the big prize. Whoever can get to it will have more money and power than anyone. However, it’s also the biggest challenge. No leader in the world, after Ghenghis Khan, has been able to conquer Russia or turn it around to be allies of the West.

The Conclusion

It is only in U.S. and E.U. interests to have Georgia fight the Russians in an open conflict. Contrary to what the naive Yuschenko may be saying, having Ukraine part of NATO is still best for the West only. Now is not the time for it, however. The Black Sea Fleet needs to be taken care of first, before Ukrain will be free of Russian forces. The U.S. polticians are businessmen. They have stakes in companies that tap natural resources. The reason for these politicians to be in offices is because then they can expand their business empires internationaly into countries where it has not been possible before. If Georgia were to win this war, and Ukrainian is succesfull at getting the Black Sea Fleet out, then U.S. can put enough pressure on Kremlin to let the Western capitalists enter the vast Russian expanses rich with resources that everybusinessman only deams of.

Untapped Russian Resources Are What The West Is After

Untapped Russian Resources Are What The West Is After

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One Response

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  1. […] covering the Georgia-Russia conflict and has made some interesting points. I do, however, disagree with this: “It is only in U.S. and E.U. interests to have Georgia fight the Russians in an open […]


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